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Progress in ENSO prediction and predictability study 期刊论文
NATIONAL SCIENCE REVIEW, 2018, 卷号: 5, 期号: 6, 页码: 826-839
作者:  Tang, Youmin;  Zhang, Rong-Hua;  Liu, Ting;  Duan, Wansuo;  Yang, Dejian;  Zheng, Fei;  Ren, Hongli;  Lian, Tao;  Gao, Chuan;  Chen, Dake;  Mu, Mu
Adobe PDF(1925Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载：400/0  |  提交时间：2019/08/27
ENSO prediction and predictability  coupled model  ensemble prediction  optimal error growth  probabilistic prediction  
Estimating observing locations for advancing beyond the winter predictability barrier of Indian Ocean dipole event predictions 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2017, 卷号: 48, 期号: 3-4, 页码: 1173-1185
作者:  Feng, Rong;  Duan, Wansuo;  Mu, Mu
Adobe PDF(5307Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载：236/0  |  提交时间：2017/04/05
Indian Ocean Dipole  Sensitive Areas  Winter Predictability Barrier  Initial Errors  
Target observations for improving initialization of high-impact ocean-atmospheric environmental events forecasting 期刊论文
NATIONAL SCIENCE REVIEW, 2015, 卷号: 2, 期号: 2, 页码: 226-236
作者:  Mu, Mu;  Duan, Wansuo;  Chen, Dake;  Yu, Weidong
Adobe PDF(436Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载：266/3  |  提交时间：2015/07/27
Atmosphere  Ocean  Predictability  Target Observation  
The "winter predictability barrier'' for IOD events and its error growth dynamics: Results from a fully coupled GCM 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS, 2014, 卷号: 119, 期号: 12, 页码: 8688-8708
作者:  Feng, Rong;  Duan, Wansuo;  Mu, Mu;  Duan, WS (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LASG, Beijing, Peoples R China.
Adobe PDF(2358Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载：268/0  |  提交时间：2015/06/11
Indian Ocean Dipole  Winter Predictability Barrier  Error Growth  
Study on the "winter persistence barrier" of Indian Ocean dipole events using observation data and CMIP5 model outputs 期刊论文
THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY, 2014, 卷号: 118, 期号: 3, 页码: 523-534
作者:  Feng, Rong;  Mu, Mu;  Duan, Wansuo;  Duan, WS (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, LASG, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China.
Adobe PDF(3443Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载：213/0  |  提交时间：2015/06/11
Conditions under which CNOP sensitivity is valid for tropical cyclone adaptive observations 期刊论文
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, 2013, 卷号: 139, 期号: 675, 页码: 1544-1554
作者:  Qin, Xiaohao;  Duan, Wansuo;  Mu, Mu;  Duan, WS
Adobe PDF(1062Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载：220/0  |  提交时间：2014/07/17
Profound Track Forecast Improvements  Conditions  Tropical Cyclone  Adaptive Observations  Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations  
Seasonal modulations of different impacts of two types of ENSO events on tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2013, 卷号: 40, 期号: 11-12, 页码: 2887-2902
作者:  Wang, Chunzai;  Li, Chunxiang;  Mu, Mu;  Duan, Wansuo;  Wang, CZ
Adobe PDF(3236Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载：200/0  |  提交时间：2014/07/17
Contribution of the location and spatial pattern of initial error to uncertainties in El Nino predictions 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS, 2012, 卷号: 117, 页码: C06018
作者:  Yu, Yanshan;  Mu, Mu;  Duan, Wansuo;  Gong, Tingting;  Gong, TT (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Wave Studies, Inst Oceanol, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China.
Adobe PDF(1637Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载：254/0  |  提交时间：2013/09/24
Sea-surface Temperature  Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation  Singular Vector Analysis  Enso Predictability  Coupled Model  Thermohaline Circulation  Southern Oscillation  Optimal-growth  Stability  Sensitivity  
Does Model Parameter Error Cause a Significant "Spring Predictability Barrier" for El Nino Events in the Zebiak-Cane Model? 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2012, 卷号: 25, 期号: 4, 页码: 1263-1277
作者:  Yu, Yanshan;  Mu, Mu;  Duan, Wansuo;  Duan, WS (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LASG, POB 9804, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China.
Adobe PDF(1384Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载：334/0  |  提交时间：2013/09/24
Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation  Ocean-atmosphere Model  General-circulation Model  Sea-surface Temperature  Southern Oscillation  Coupled Model  Thermohaline Circulation  Enso Predictability  Initial Conditions  Data Assimilation  
Dynamics of nonlinear error growth and season-dependent predictability of El Nino events in the Zebiak-Cane model 期刊论文
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, 2009, 卷号: 135, 期号: 645, 页码: 2146-2160
作者:  Yu, Yanshan;  Duan, Wansuo;  Xu, Hui;  Mu, Mu
Adobe PDF(549Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载：168/1  |  提交时间：2010/12/22
Nonlinearity  Optimal Perturbation