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Drivers of future alien species impacts: An expert-based assessment
Essl, Franz1,2; Lenzner, Bernd1; Bacher, Sven3; Bailey, Sarah4; Capinha, Cesar5; Daehler, Curtis6; Dullinger, Stefan1; Genovesi, Piero2,7,8; Hui, Cang9,10,11; Hulme, Philip E.12; Jeschke, Jonathan M.13,14,15; Katsanevakis, Stelios16; Kuehn, Ingolf17,18,19; Leung, Brian20,21; Liebhold, Andrew22,23; Liu, Chunlong13,14,24; MacIsaac, Hugh J.25; Meyerson, Laura A.26; Nunez, Martin A.27; Pauchard, Anibal28,29; Pysek, Petr30,31; Rabitsch, Wolfgang32; Richardson, David M.2; Roy, Helen E.33; Ruiz, Gregory M.34; Russell, James C.35; Sanders, Nathan J.36; Sax, Dov F.37,38; Scalera, Riccardo8; Seebens, Hanno39; Springborn, Michael40; Turbelin, Anna41,42; van Kleunen, Mark43,44; von Holle, Betsy45; Winter, Marten19; Zenni, Rafael D.46; Mattsson, Brady J.47; Roura-Pascual, Nuria48
Corresponding AuthorEssl, Franz(
AbstractUnderstanding the likely future impacts of biological invasions is crucial yet highly challenging given the multiple relevant environmental, socio-economic and societal contexts and drivers. In the absence of quantitative models, methods based on expert knowledge are the best option for assessing future invasion trajectories. Here, we present an expert assessment of the drivers of potential alien species impacts under contrasting scenarios and socioecological contexts through the mid-21st century. Based on responses from 36 experts in biological invasions, moderate (20%-30%) increases in invasions, compared to the current conditions, are expected to cause major impacts on biodiversity in most socioecological contexts. Three main drivers of biological invasions-transport, climate change and socio-economic change-were predicted to significantly affect future impacts of alien species on biodiversity even under a best-case scenario. Other drivers (e.g. human demography and migration in tropical and subtropical regions) were also of high importance in specific global contexts (e.g. for individual taxonomic groups or biomes). We show that some best-case scenarios can substantially reduce potential future impacts of biological invasions. However, rapid and comprehensive actions are necessary to use this potential and achieve the goals of the Post-2020 Framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity.
Keywordbiological invasions expert survey globalization impacts management policy scenarios uncertainties
Indexed BySCI
Funding ProjectCOST Action 'Alien Challenge'[TD1209] ; Austrian Science Foundation FWF[I 3757-B29] ; BiodivERsA-Belmont Forum Project 'Alien Scenarios' (FWF)[I 4011-B32] ; COST Action 'Alien CSI'[CA17122] ; Portuguese National Funds through Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia, I.P. under the programme of 'Stimulus of Scientific Employment - Individual Support'[CEECIND/02037/2017] ; Portuguese National Funds through Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia, I.P. under the programme of 'Stimulus of Scientific Employment - Individual Support'[UIDB/00295/2020] ; Portuguese National Funds through Fundacao para a Ciencia e a Tecnologia, I.P. under the programme of 'Stimulus of Scientific Employment - Individual Support'[UIDP/00295/2020] ; South African Research Chair Initiative (National Research Foundation)[89967] ; project 'AlienScenarios'[BMBF FKZ 01LC1807A] ; project 'AlienScenarios'[01LC1807B] ; project 'AlienScenarios'[01LC1807C] ; EXPRO grant (Czech Science Foundation)[19-28807X] ; long-term research development project (Czech Academy of Sciences)[RVO 67985939] ; Fisheries and Oceans Canada ; Transport Canada ; NSERC ; Natural Environment Research Council as part of the UK-SCAPE programme delivering National Capability[NE/R016429/1] ; Belmont Forum-BiodivERsA International joint call project 'InvasiBES'[PCI2018-092939] ; Swiss National Science Foundation[31003A_179491] ; Swiss National Science Foundation[31BD30_184114] ; project 'InvasiBES'[BMBF FKZ 01LC1803A] ; CONICYT[PIA AFB-170008] ; Canada Research Chair ; DSI-NRF Centre of Excellence for Invasion Biology ; Oppenheimer Memorial Trust ; National Science Foundation Macrosystems Biology Program[1241932] ; National Science Foundation Macrosystems Biology Program[1638702] ; grant EVA4.0 - OP RDE[CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000803] ; FEDER/Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovacion - Agencia Estatal de Investigacion[PCI2018-092966]
WOS Research AreaBiodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS SubjectBiodiversity Conservation ; Ecology ; Environmental Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000548118200001
Citation statistics
Cited Times:10[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Corresponding AuthorEssl, Franz
Affiliation1.Univ Vienna, Dept Bot & Biodivers Res, Rennweg 14, A-1030 Vienna, Austria
2.Stellenbosch Univ, Ctr Invas Biol, Dept Bot & Zool, Matieland, South Africa
3.Univ Fribourg, Dept Biol, Fribourg, Switzerland
4.Fisheries & Oceans Canada, Great Lakes Lab Fisheries & Aquat Sci, Burlington, ON, Canada
5.Univ Lisbon, Inst Geog & Spatial Planning IGOT, Ctr Geog Studies, Lisbon, Portugal
6.Univ Hawaii Manoa, Sch Life Sci, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA
7.Inst Environm Protect & Res ISPRA, Rome, Italy
8.IUCN SSC Invas Species Specialist Grp, Rome, Italy
9.African Inst Math Sci, Biodivers Informat Grp, Cape Town, South Africa
10.Stellenbosch Univ, Ctr Invas Biol, Dept Math Sci, Matieland, South Africa
11.Int Initiat Theoret Ecol, London, England
12.Lincoln Univ, Bioprotect Res Ctr, Christchurch, New Zealand
13.Leibniz Inst Freshwater Ecol & Inland Fisheries I, Berlin, Germany
14.Free Univ Berlin, Inst Biol, Berlin, Germany
15.Berlin Brandenburg Inst Adv Biodivers Res BBIB, Berlin, Germany
16.Univ Aegean, Dept Marine Sci, Mitilini, Greece
17.UFZ Helmholtz Ctr Environm Res, Dept Community Ecol, Halle, Germany
18.Martin Luther Univ Halle Wittenberg, Geobot & Bot Garden, Halle, Germany
19.German Ctr Integrat Biodivers Res iDiv, Leipzig, Germany
20.McGill Univ, Dept Biol, Montreal, PQ, Canada
21.McGill Univ, Sch Environm, Montreal, PQ, Canada
22.US Forest Serv, Northern Res Stn, Morgantown, WV USA
23.Czech Univ Life Sci, Fac Forestry & Wood Sci, Prague, Czech Republic
24.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, CAS Key Lab Marine Ecol & Environm Sci, Qingdao, Peoples R China
25.Univ Windsor, Great Lakes Inst Environm Res, Windsor, ON, Canada
26.Univ Rhode Isl, Dept Nat Resources Sci, Kingston, RI 02881 USA
27.Univ Nacl Comahue, CONICET, Grp Ecol Invas, INIBIOMA, San Carlos De Bariloche, Rio Negro, Argentina
28.Univ Concepcion, Fac Ciencias Forestales, Lab Invas Biol LIB, Concepcion, Chile
29.Inst Ecol & Biodivers, Santiago, Chile
30.Czech Acad Sci, Inst Bot, Dept Invas Ecol, Pruhonice, Czech Republic
31.Charles Univ Prague, Fac Sci, Dept Ecol, Prague, Czech Republic
32.Environm Agcy Austria, Dept Biodivers & Nat Conservat, Vienna, Austria
33.UK Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Wallingford, Oxon, England
34.Smithsonian Environm Res Ctr, POB 28, Edgewater, MD 21037 USA
35.Univ Auckland, Sch Biol Sci, Auckland, New Zealand
36.Univ Vermont, Rubenstein Sch Environm & Nat Resources, Environm Program, Burlington, VT USA
37.Brown Univ, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Providence, RI 02912 USA
38.Brown Univ, Inst Brown Environm & Soc, Providence, RI 02912 USA
39.Senckenberg Biodivers & Climate Res Ctr, Frankfurt, Germany
40.Univ Calif Davis, Dept Environm Sci & Policy, Davis, CA 95616 USA
41.Univ Paris Saclay, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Ecol Systemat Evolut, Orsay, France
42.Kings Coll London, Dept Geog, London, England
43.Univ Konstanz, Dept Biol, Ecol, Constance, Germany
44.Taizhou Univ, Zhejiang Prov Key Lab Plant Evolutionary Ecol & C, Taizhou, Peoples R China
45.Natl Sci Fdn, Div Environm Biol, Alexandria, VA USA
46.Univ Fed Lavras, Dept Biol, Lavras, Brazil
47.Univ Nat Resources & Life Sci, Inst Wildlife Biol & Game Management, Vienna, Austria
48.Univ Girona, Dept Ciencies Ambientals, Girona, Spain
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Essl, Franz,Lenzner, Bernd,Bacher, Sven,et al. Drivers of future alien species impacts: An expert-based assessment[J]. GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,2020:14.
APA Essl, Franz.,Lenzner, Bernd.,Bacher, Sven.,Bailey, Sarah.,Capinha, Cesar.,...&Roura-Pascual, Nuria.(2020).Drivers of future alien species impacts: An expert-based assessment.GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY,14.
MLA Essl, Franz,et al."Drivers of future alien species impacts: An expert-based assessment".GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY (2020):14.
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