Institutional Repository of Key Laboratory of Marine Ecology & Environmental Sciences, CAS
| Modelling the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of ichthyoplankton in the Yangtze Estuary, China | |
Zhang, Zhixin4; Mammola, Stefano5,6; Xian, Weiwei1,2,3; Zhang, Hui1,2,3
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| 2020 | |
| Source Publication | DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS
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| ISSN | 1366-9516 |
| Volume | 26Issue:1Pages:126-137 |
| Corresponding Author | Xian, Weiwei(wwxian@qdio.ac.cn) ; Zhang, Hui(zhanghui@qdio.ac.cn) |
| Abstract | Aim Species distribution models (SDMs) are an effective tool to explore the potential distribution of terrestrial, freshwater and marine organisms; however, SDMs have been seldom used to model ichthyoplankton distributions, and thus, our understanding of how larval stages of fishes will respond to climate change is still limited. Here, we developed SDMs to explore potential impacts of climate change on habitat suitability of ichthyoplankton. Location Yangtze Estuary, China. Methods Using long-term ichthyoplankton survey data and a large set of marine predictor variables, we developed ensemble SDMs for five abundant ichthyoplankton species in the Yangtze Estuary (Coilia mystus, Hypoatherina valenciennei, Larimichthys polyactis, Salanx ariakensis and Chelidonichthys spinosus). Then, we projected their habitat suitability under present and future climate conditions. Results The ensemble SDMs had good predictive performance and were successful in estimating the known distributions of the five species. Model projections highlighted two contrasting patterns of response to future climates: while C. mystus will likely expand its range, the ranges of the other four species will likely contract and shift northward. Main conclusions According to our SDM projections, the five ichthyoplankton species that we tested in the Yangtze Estuary are likely to respond differently to future climate changes. These projected different responses seemingly reflect the differential functional attributes and life-history strategies of these species. To the extent that climate change emerges as a critical driver of the future distribution of these species, our findings provide an important roadmap for designing future conservation strategies for ichthyoplankton in this region. |
| Keyword | climate change responses distribution range shifts ensemble forecasting fish larvae habitat suitability species distribution modelling |
| DOI | 10.1111/ddi.13002 |
| Indexed By | SCI |
| Language | 英语 |
| Funding Project | National Natural Science Foundation of China[41976094] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[31872568] ; Key Deployment Program of Center for Ocean Mega-Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences[CAS-JSPS-GJHZ1885] ; Youth Talent Support Program of the Laboratory for Marine Ecology and Environmental Science, Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao)[LMEES-YTSP-2018-01-12] |
| WOS Research Area | Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
| WOS Subject | Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology |
| WOS ID | WOS:000493701400001 |
| Publisher | WILEY |
| Citation statistics | |
| Document Type | 期刊论文 |
| Identifier | http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/164929 |
| Collection | 海洋生态与环境科学重点实验室 |
| Corresponding Author | Xian, Weiwei; Zhang, Hui |
| Affiliation | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, CAS Key Lab Marine Ecol & Environm Sci, Qingdao 266071, Shandong, Peoples R China 2.Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol, Lab Marine Ecol & Environm Sci, Qingdao, Shandong, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Ocean Megasci, Qingdao, Shandong, Peoples R China 4.Tokyo Univ Marine Sci & Technol, Grad Sch Marine Sci & Technol, Minato Ku, Tokyo, Japan 5.Univ Turin, Dept Life Sci & Syst Biol, Turin, Italy 6.Univ Helsinki, LIBRe Lab Integrat Biodivers Res, Finnish Museum Nat Hist, Helsinki, Finland |
| Corresponding Author Affilication | Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences; Center for Ocean Mega-Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Zhang, Zhixin,Mammola, Stefano,Xian, Weiwei,et al. Modelling the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of ichthyoplankton in the Yangtze Estuary, China[J]. DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS,2020,26(1):126-137. |
| APA | Zhang, Zhixin,Mammola, Stefano,Xian, Weiwei,&Zhang, Hui.(2020).Modelling the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of ichthyoplankton in the Yangtze Estuary, China.DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS,26(1),126-137. |
| MLA | Zhang, Zhixin,et al."Modelling the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of ichthyoplankton in the Yangtze Estuary, China".DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS 26.1(2020):126-137. |
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