IOCAS-IR  > 海洋生态与环境科学重点实验室
Modelling the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of ichthyoplankton in the Yangtze Estuary, China
Zhang, Zhixin4; Mammola, Stefano5,6; Xian, Weiwei1,2,3; Zhang, Hui1,2,3
2020
Source PublicationDIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS
ISSN1366-9516
Volume26Issue:1Pages:126-137
Corresponding AuthorXian, Weiwei(wwxian@qdio.ac.cn) ; Zhang, Hui(zhanghui@qdio.ac.cn)
AbstractAim Species distribution models (SDMs) are an effective tool to explore the potential distribution of terrestrial, freshwater and marine organisms; however, SDMs have been seldom used to model ichthyoplankton distributions, and thus, our understanding of how larval stages of fishes will respond to climate change is still limited. Here, we developed SDMs to explore potential impacts of climate change on habitat suitability of ichthyoplankton. Location Yangtze Estuary, China. Methods Using long-term ichthyoplankton survey data and a large set of marine predictor variables, we developed ensemble SDMs for five abundant ichthyoplankton species in the Yangtze Estuary (Coilia mystus, Hypoatherina valenciennei, Larimichthys polyactis, Salanx ariakensis and Chelidonichthys spinosus). Then, we projected their habitat suitability under present and future climate conditions. Results The ensemble SDMs had good predictive performance and were successful in estimating the known distributions of the five species. Model projections highlighted two contrasting patterns of response to future climates: while C. mystus will likely expand its range, the ranges of the other four species will likely contract and shift northward. Main conclusions According to our SDM projections, the five ichthyoplankton species that we tested in the Yangtze Estuary are likely to respond differently to future climate changes. These projected different responses seemingly reflect the differential functional attributes and life-history strategies of these species. To the extent that climate change emerges as a critical driver of the future distribution of these species, our findings provide an important roadmap for designing future conservation strategies for ichthyoplankton in this region.
Keywordclimate change responses distribution range shifts ensemble forecasting fish larvae habitat suitability species distribution modelling
DOI10.1111/ddi.13002
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[41976094] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[31872568] ; Key Deployment Program of Center for Ocean Mega-Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences[CAS-JSPS-GJHZ1885] ; Youth Talent Support Program of the Laboratory for Marine Ecology and Environmental Science, Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao)[LMEES-YTSP-2018-01-12]
WOS Research AreaBiodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS SubjectBiodiversity Conservation ; Ecology
WOS IDWOS:000493701400001
PublisherWILEY
Citation statistics
Cited Times:1[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/164929
Collection海洋生态与环境科学重点实验室
Corresponding AuthorXian, Weiwei; Zhang, Hui
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, CAS Key Lab Marine Ecol & Environm Sci, Qingdao 266071, Shandong, Peoples R China
2.Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol, Lab Marine Ecol & Environm Sci, Qingdao, Shandong, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Ocean Megasci, Qingdao, Shandong, Peoples R China
4.Tokyo Univ Marine Sci & Technol, Grad Sch Marine Sci & Technol, Minato Ku, Tokyo, Japan
5.Univ Turin, Dept Life Sci & Syst Biol, Turin, Italy
6.Univ Helsinki, LIBRe Lab Integrat Biodivers Res, Finnish Museum Nat Hist, Helsinki, Finland
Corresponding Author AffilicationInstitute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences;  Center for Ocean Mega-Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhang, Zhixin,Mammola, Stefano,Xian, Weiwei,et al. Modelling the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of ichthyoplankton in the Yangtze Estuary, China[J]. DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS,2020,26(1):126-137.
APA Zhang, Zhixin,Mammola, Stefano,Xian, Weiwei,&Zhang, Hui.(2020).Modelling the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of ichthyoplankton in the Yangtze Estuary, China.DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS,26(1),126-137.
MLA Zhang, Zhixin,et al."Modelling the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of ichthyoplankton in the Yangtze Estuary, China".DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS 26.1(2020):126-137.
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