IOCAS-IR  > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室
An improved simulation of the 2015 El Nio event by optimally correcting the initial conditions and model parameters in an intermediate coupled model
Zhang, Rong-Hua1,2,3; Tao, Ling-Jiang1,3; Gao, Chuan1,2
2018-07-01
Source PublicationCLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN0930-7575
Volume51Issue:1-2Pages:269-282
Corresponding AuthorZhang, Rong-Hua(rzhang@qdio.ac.cn)
AbstractLarge uncertainties exist in real-time predictions of the 2015 El Nio event, which have systematic intensity biases that are strongly model-dependent. It is critically important to characterize those model biases so they can be reduced appropriately. In this study, the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP)-based approach was applied to an intermediate coupled model (ICM) equipped with a four-dimensional variational data assimilation technique. The CNOP-based approach was used to quantify prediction errors that can be attributed to initial conditions (ICs) and model parameters (MPs). Two key MPs were considered in the ICM: one represents the intensity of the thermocline effect, and the other represents the relative coupling intensity between the ocean and atmosphere. Two experiments were performed to illustrate the effects of error corrections, one with a standard simulation and another with an optimized simulation in which errors in the ICs and MPs derived from the CNOP-based approach were optimally corrected. The results indicate that simulations of the 2015 El Nio event can be effectively improved by using CNOP-derived error correcting. In particular, the El Nio intensity in late 2015 was adequately captured when simulations were started from early 2015. Quantitatively, the Nio3.4 SST index simulated in Dec. 2015 increased to 2.8 A degrees C in the optimized simulation, compared with only 1.5 A degrees C in the standard simulation. The feasibility and effectiveness of using the CNOP-based technique to improve ENSO simulations are demonstrated in the context of the 2015 El Nio event. The limitations and further applications are also discussed.
KeywordThe 2015 El Nino event ICM The CNOP-based approach Optimal bias corrections to ICs and MPs
DOI10.1007/s00382-017-3919-z
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[41690122] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41690120] ; AoShan Talents Program - Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science Technology[2015ASTP] ; Chinese Academy of Sciences Strategic Priority Project ; Western Pacific Ocean System[XDA11010105] ; Western Pacific Ocean System[XDA11020306] ; Taishan Scholarship ; Recruitment Program of Global Experts ; Qingdao Innovative Program[13-CX-22] ; Shandong Independent Innovation Major Program for key technology[2014GJJS0101]
WOS Research AreaMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS SubjectMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000435522000016
PublisherSPRINGER
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/159494
Collection海洋环流与波动重点实验室
Corresponding AuthorZhang, Rong-Hua
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China
2.Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol, Qingdao 266237, Peoples R China
3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
First Author AffilicationKey Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Wave Studies, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Corresponding Author AffilicationKey Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Wave Studies, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhang, Rong-Hua,Tao, Ling-Jiang,Gao, Chuan. An improved simulation of the 2015 El Nio event by optimally correcting the initial conditions and model parameters in an intermediate coupled model[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,51(1-2):269-282.
APA Zhang, Rong-Hua,Tao, Ling-Jiang,&Gao, Chuan.(2018).An improved simulation of the 2015 El Nio event by optimally correcting the initial conditions and model parameters in an intermediate coupled model.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,51(1-2),269-282.
MLA Zhang, Rong-Hua,et al."An improved simulation of the 2015 El Nio event by optimally correcting the initial conditions and model parameters in an intermediate coupled model".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 51.1-2(2018):269-282.
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