IOCAS-IR  > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室
The Indian Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations in CFSv2 Forecasts: Biases and Importance of Improving Air-Sea Interaction Processes
Li, Yuanlong1,2,3; Han, Weiqing2; Wang, Wanqiu4; Zhang, Lei2; Ravichandran, M.5
2018-07-01
Source PublicationJOURNAL OF CLIMATE
ISSN0894-8755
Volume31Issue:14Pages:5351-5370
Corresponding AuthorLi, Yuanlong(yuanlong.li@colorado.edu)
AbstractNorthward-propagating Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs) are a major origin of the active-break spells of the monsoon rainfall. Forecast results for 28 active and 27 break spells from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), during 1999-2010 are analyzed. CFSv2 forecasts are able to represent the propagation of MISOs from the equator to central India, showing improvements in many aspects compared to its previous version. Systematic biases for MISOs, however, still exist, exhibiting apparently weaker amplitude and slower northward propagation compared to observations. The eastern Arabian Sea (EAS)-western Bay of Bengal (WBB) region (EAS-WBB region; 12 degrees-20 degrees N, 65 degrees-85 degrees E) is found to be critical for the MISO prediction. In that region, the forecast and observed MISO trajectories begin to bifurcate from each other, and forecast errors grow rapidly. Further diagnosis reveals that local air-sea interaction in that region is severely underrepresented in CFSv2. Sea surface temperature (SST) response to surface heat flux forcing and convection response to SST forcing are both too weak, leading to the underestimated MISO amplitude. The relationship between precipitation and SST in CFSv2 is much more chaotic than in observation. The misrepresentation of air-sea coupling results in longer MISO periods in the EAS-WBB region, manifesting as slower propagation and delayed arrival of MISOs in central India. Refining the air-sea coupling processes is crucial for improving the CFSv2 forecast. This includes taking into account the ocean skin layer, better resolving the diurnal cycle, and improving the ocean model physics.
KeywordMonsoons Sea surface temperature Air-sea interaction Forecasting Intraseasonal variability
DOI10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0623.1
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectEarth System Science Organization, Ministry of Earth Sciences, government of India[SSC-03-002] ; Earth System Science Organization, Ministry of Earth Sciences, government of India[MM/SERP/CNRS/2013/INT-10/002] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[41776001] ; NSF[OCE-1658132]
WOS Research AreaMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS SubjectMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000435075300002
PublisherAMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
Citation statistics
Cited Times:1[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/159390
Collection海洋环流与波动重点实验室
Corresponding AuthorLi, Yuanlong
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao, Peoples R China
2.Univ Colorado, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA
3.Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol, Funct Lab Ocean Dynam & Climate, Qingdao, Peoples R China
4.NOAA, Climate Predict Ctr, NWS, NCEP, College Pk, MD USA
5.Natl Ctr Antarctic & Ocean Res, Vasco De Gama, India
First Author AffilicationKey Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Wave Studies, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Corresponding Author AffilicationKey Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Wave Studies, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Li, Yuanlong,Han, Weiqing,Wang, Wanqiu,et al. The Indian Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations in CFSv2 Forecasts: Biases and Importance of Improving Air-Sea Interaction Processes[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(14):5351-5370.
APA Li, Yuanlong,Han, Weiqing,Wang, Wanqiu,Zhang, Lei,&Ravichandran, M..(2018).The Indian Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations in CFSv2 Forecasts: Biases and Importance of Improving Air-Sea Interaction Processes.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(14),5351-5370.
MLA Li, Yuanlong,et al."The Indian Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations in CFSv2 Forecasts: Biases and Importance of Improving Air-Sea Interaction Processes".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.14(2018):5351-5370.
Files in This Item:
There are no files associated with this item.
Related Services
Recommend this item
Bookmark
Usage statistics
Export to Endnote
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Li, Yuanlong]'s Articles
[Han, Weiqing]'s Articles
[Wang, Wanqiu]'s Articles
Baidu academic
Similar articles in Baidu academic
[Li, Yuanlong]'s Articles
[Han, Weiqing]'s Articles
[Wang, Wanqiu]'s Articles
Bing Scholar
Similar articles in Bing Scholar
[Li, Yuanlong]'s Articles
[Han, Weiqing]'s Articles
[Wang, Wanqiu]'s Articles
Terms of Use
No data!
Social Bookmark/Share
All comments (0)
No comment.
 

Items in the repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.