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Role of parameter errors in the spring predictability barrier for ENSO events in the Zebiak-Cane model 期刊论文
ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 2014, 卷号: 31, 期号: 3, 页码: 647-656
作者:  Yu Liang;  Mu Mu;  Yu, Yanshan;  Mu, M (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China.
Adobe PDF(500Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载：203/0  |  提交时间：2015/06/11
Enso Predictability  Spring Predictability Barrier  Initial Errors  Parameter Errors  Error Growth  
Similarities between optimal precursors for ENSO events and optimally growing initial errors in El Nio predictions 期刊论文
THEORETICAL AND APPLIED CLIMATOLOGY, 2014, 卷号: 115, 期号: 3-4, 页码: 461-469
作者:  Mu, Mu;  Yu, Yanshan;  Xu, Hui;  Gong, Tingting;  Gong, TT (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Wave, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China.
Adobe PDF(900Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载：181/0  |  提交时间：2015/06/11
The role of nonlinearities associated with air-sea coupling processes in El Nino's peak-phase locking 期刊论文
SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES, 2013, 卷号: 56, 期号: 11, 页码: 1988-1996
作者:  Duan WanSuo;  Zhang Rui;  Yu YanShan;  Tian Ben;  Duan, WS
Adobe PDF(887Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载：192/0  |  提交时间：2014/07/17
El Nino Event  Nonlinearity  Optimal Perturbation  Numerical Model  
Behaviors of nonlinearities modulating the El Nio events induced by optimal precursory disturbances 期刊论文
CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2013, 卷号: 40, 期号: 5-6, 页码: 1399-1413
作者:  Duan, Wansuo;  Yu, Yanshan;  Xu, Hui;  Zhao, Peng;  Duan, WS
Adobe PDF(1030Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载：204/0  |  提交时间：2014/07/17
El Nino  Nonlinearity  Optimal Perturbation  
Contribution of the location and spatial pattern of initial error to uncertainties in El Nino predictions 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS, 2012, 卷号: 117, 页码: C06018
作者:  Yu, Yanshan;  Mu, Mu;  Duan, Wansuo;  Gong, Tingting;  Gong, TT (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Wave Studies, Inst Oceanol, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China.
Adobe PDF(1637Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载：249/0  |  提交时间：2013/09/24
Sea-surface Temperature  Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation  Singular Vector Analysis  Enso Predictability  Coupled Model  Thermohaline Circulation  Southern Oscillation  Optimal-growth  Stability  Sensitivity  
Does Model Parameter Error Cause a Significant "Spring Predictability Barrier" for El Nino Events in the Zebiak-Cane Model? 期刊论文
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2012, 卷号: 25, 期号: 4, 页码: 1263-1277
作者:  Yu, Yanshan;  Mu, Mu;  Duan, Wansuo;  Duan, WS (reprint author), Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LASG, POB 9804, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China.
Adobe PDF(1384Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载：330/0  |  提交时间：2013/09/24
Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation  Ocean-atmosphere Model  General-circulation Model  Sea-surface Temperature  Southern Oscillation  Coupled Model  Thermohaline Circulation  Enso Predictability  Initial Conditions  Data Assimilation  
气象预报的方法与不确定性 期刊论文
气象, 2011, 期号: 1, 页码: 41287
作者:  穆穆;  陈博宇;  周菲凡;  余堰山
Adobe PDF(2701Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载：175/0  |  提交时间：2013/09/27
气象预报  数值预报  不确定性  可预报性  集合预报  
Dynamics of nonlinear error growth and season-dependent predictability of El Nino events in the Zebiak-Cane model 期刊论文
QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, 2009, 卷号: 135, 期号: 645, 页码: 2146-2160
作者:  Yu, Yanshan;  Duan, Wansuo;  Xu, Hui;  Mu, Mu
Adobe PDF(549Kb)  |  收藏  |  浏览/下载：168/1  |  提交时间：2010/12/22
Nonlinearity  Optimal Perturbation