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Target observations for improving initialization of high-impact ocean-atmospheric environmental events forecasting
Mu, Mu1; Duan, Wansuo2; Chen, Dake3; Yu, Weidong4
2015-06-01
发表期刊NATIONAL SCIENCE REVIEW
卷号2期号:2页码:226-236
文章类型Review
摘要In this paper, we emphasize the importance of accurate initial conditions in predicting high-impact ocean-atmospheric environmental events, such as El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), tropical cyclone (TC), and Kuroshio large meander (KLM), by reviewing recent progresses toward target observations for improving the initialization of these events forecasting. Since field observations are costly and will never be dense enough to fully cover the vast space of these events, it is necessary to develop methodologies that guide the design of efficient and effective observation strategy. Of particular interest is a method called conditional non-linear optimal perturbation (CNOP), which has been shown to be very useful in determining the sensitive areas for target observations applicable to the predictions of ENSO, IOD, TC, and KLM. Further studies are needed to understand the predictability of these events under the influence of climate change, and to explore the possibility of implementing field programs of target observations. These studies are challenging but are crucially important for improving our forecast skill of the high-impact ocean-atmospheric environmental events, and thus for disaster prevention, climate change mitigation, and sustainable socio-economic development.
关键词Atmosphere Ocean Predictability Target Observation
DOI10.1093/nsr/nwv021
收录类别SCI
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000356861100018
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被引频次:13[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/33089
专题海洋环流与波动重点实验室
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LASG, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China
3.State Ocean Adm, Inst Oceanog 2, SOED, Hangzhou 310012, Zhejiang, Peoples R China
4.State Ocean Adm, Inst Oceanog 1, Qingdao 266061, Peoples R China
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Mu, Mu,Duan, Wansuo,Chen, Dake,et al. Target observations for improving initialization of high-impact ocean-atmospheric environmental events forecasting[J]. NATIONAL SCIENCE REVIEW,2015,2(2):226-236.
APA Mu, Mu,Duan, Wansuo,Chen, Dake,&Yu, Weidong.(2015).Target observations for improving initialization of high-impact ocean-atmospheric environmental events forecasting.NATIONAL SCIENCE REVIEW,2(2),226-236.
MLA Mu, Mu,et al."Target observations for improving initialization of high-impact ocean-atmospheric environmental events forecasting".NATIONAL SCIENCE REVIEW 2.2(2015):226-236.
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