Coupled Variability and Predictability in a Stochastic Climate Model of the Tropical Atlantic

doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2283.1

IOCAS-IR > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	Coupled Variability and Predictability in a Stochastic Climate Model of the Tropical Atlantic
	Wang, Faming 1; Chang, Ping 2
	2008-12-01
发表期刊	JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
卷号	21 期号:23 页码:6247-6259
文章类型	Article
摘要	The coupled variability and predictability of the tropical Atlantic ocean-atmosphere system were analyzed within the framework of a linear stochastic climate model. Despite the existence of a meridional dipole as the leading mode, tropical Atlantic variability (TAV) is dominated by equatorial features and the subtropical variability is largely uncorrelated between the northern and southern Atlantic. This suggests that atmospheric stochastic forcing plays a dominant role in defining the spatial patterns of TAV, whereas the active air-sea feedbacks mainly enhance variability at interannual and decadal time scales, causing the spectra distinctive from the red spectrum. Under the stochastic forcing, the useful predictive skill for sea surface temperature measured by normalized error variance is limited to 2 months on average, which is 1 month longer than the predictive skill of damped persistence, indicating that the contribution of ocean dynamics and air-sea feedbacks is moderate in the tropical Atlantic. To achieve maximum predictability, processes such as ocean dynamics, thermodynamical and dynamical air-sea feedbacks, and the delicate mode-mode interactions should be correctly resolved in the coupled models. Therefore, predicting TAV poses more challenge than predicting El Nino in the tropical Pacific.
DOI	10.1175/2008JCLI2283.1
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000261754100009
引用统计	被引频次：6[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/32636
专题	海洋环流与波动重点实验室
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Qingdao 266071, Shandong, Peoples R China 2.Texas A&M Univ, Dept Oceanog, College Stn, TX 77843 USA
第一作者单位	中国科学院海洋研究所
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang, Faming,Chang, Ping. Coupled Variability and Predictability in a Stochastic Climate Model of the Tropical Atlantic[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2008,21(23):6247-6259.
APA	Wang, Faming,&Chang, Ping.(2008).Coupled Variability and Predictability in a Stochastic Climate Model of the Tropical Atlantic.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,21(23),6247-6259.
MLA	Wang, Faming,et al."Coupled Variability and Predictability in a Stochastic Climate Model of the Tropical Atlantic".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 21.23(2008):6247-6259.

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