The Indian Ocean Dipole in a warming world

doi:10.1038/s43017-024-00573-7

IOCAS-IR > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	The Indian Ocean Dipole in a warming world
	Wang, Guojian 1; Cai, Wenju 2,3,4,5,6; Santoso, Agus 1,7,8; Abram, Nerilie 9,10,11; Ng, Benjamin 1; Yang, Kai 1,12; Geng, Tao 2,3; Doi, Takeshi 13; Du, Yan 14,15; Izumo, Takeshi 16; Ashok, Karumuri 17,18; Li, Jianping 3,19; Li, Tim 20,21; Mckenna, Sebastian 7; Sun, Shuangwen 22,23,24; Tozuka, Tomoki 25; Zheng, Xiaotong 2,3; Liu, Yi 1,2; Wu, Lixin 2,3; Jia, Fan 3,26; Hu, Shijian 3,26; Li, Xichen 27
	2024-08-01
发表期刊	NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
卷号	5 期号:8 页码:588-604
通讯作者	Wang, Guojian(Guojian.Wang@csiro.au) ; Cai, Wenju(Wenju.Cai@csiro.au)
摘要	The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) strongly affects the climate of the Indo-Pacific. Observations suggest a shift towards stronger and earlier positive IOD (pIOD) events alongside an increased amplitude of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, but uncertainty remains, impeding assessments of ongoing changes. In this Review, we synthesize the available knowledge of projected changes in the IOD during the twenty-first century under anthropogenic warming. Compared to observations, models struggle to simulate the Bjerknes feedback, asymmetry in the strength of positive and negative IOD anomalies and El Ni & ntilde;o-Southern Oscillation or monsoonal forcings. Yet several models do capture important feedbacks reasonably well and offer useful tools with which to assess IOD evolution. A pIOD-like SST warming pattern (an enhanced west-minus-east SST gradient) alongside shifts in feedback process drive corresponding changes to the IOD. Over the course of the twenty-first century, robust changes include: enhanced IOD SST variability (as measured by the first principal component of spring SST variability, not the dipole mode index); an increase in strong rainfall pIOD events; an increase and decrease in the frequency of strong-pIOD and moderate-pIOD, respectively, as defined by SST; and an increase in the frequency of early-pIOD events. Palaeo evidence reveals similar increases in the magnitude and frequency of pIOD events underpinned by a similar pattern of mean state change (Last Glacial Maximum, post-1960), reinforcing IOD projections. Sustained international efforts are needed to improve IOD simulations and reduce projection uncertainties. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) exerts strong control on the Indo-Pacific climate. This Review outlines twenty-first-century changes in the IOD, noting robust increases in eastern pole sea surface temperature variability, more frequent strong and early positive IOD events, and less frequent moderate positive IOD events.
DOI	10.1038/s43017-024-00573-7
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
资助项目	Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDB40030000] ; Chinese Academy of Sciences[133244KYSB20190031] ; Chinese Academy of Sciences[183311KYSB20200015] ; Australian government under the National Environmental Science Program ; Australian Research Council[CE170100023] ; Australian Research Council[SR200100008] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42105032] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42090042] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42149910] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42049910] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42288101] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42088101] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41976021] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41975092] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42022040] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China project[42206209] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China project[42276006] ; China National Postdoctoral Program for Innovative Talents[BX20220279] ; Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (IRD) ; JSPS KAKENHI[JP22K18727]
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS记录号	WOS:001280694500001
出版者	SPRINGERNATURE
WOS关键词	SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE ; NINO-SOUTHERN OSCILLATION ; ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON ; EL-NINO ; RECENT INTENSIFICATION ; DECADAL VARIABILITY ; CLIMATE VARIABILITY ; POSSIBLE IMPACTS ; FUTURE CHANGES ; MODE EVENTS
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/186208
专题	海洋环流与波动重点实验室
通讯作者	Wang, Guojian; Cai, Wenju
作者单位	1.CSIRO Environm, Hobart, Tas, Australia 2.Ocean Univ China, Frontier Sci Ctr Deep Ocean Multispheres & Earth S, Phys Oceanog Lab, Qingdao, Peoples R China 3.Laoshan Lab, Qingdao, Peoples R China 4.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Earth Environm, State Key Lab Loess & Quaternary Geol, Xian, Peoples R China 5.Xiamen Univ, State Key Lab Marine Environm Sci, Xiamen, Peoples R China 6.Xiamen Univ, Coll Ocean & Earth Sci, Xiamen, Peoples R China 7.Univ New South Wales, Australian Res Council ARC, Ctr Excellence Climate Extremes & Climate Change, Sydney, NSW, Australia 8.Ocean Univ China, Int CLIVAR Project Off, Qingdao, Peoples R China 9.Australian Natl Univ, Res Sch Earth Sci, Canberra, ACT, Australia 10.Australian Natl Univ, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Extremes, Canberra, ACT, Australia 11.Australian Natl Univ, ARC Australian Ctr Excellence Antarctic Sci, Canberra, ACT, Australia 12.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geoph, Beijing, Peoples R China 13.Japan Agcy Marine Earth Sci & Technol JAMSTEC, Applicat Lab APL, Res Inst Value Added Informat Generat VAiG, Yokohama, Japan 14.Chinese Acad Sci, South China Sea Inst Oceanol, State Key Lab Trop Oceanog, Guangzhou, Peoples R China 15.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 16.Univ Polynesie Francaise UPF, Inst Rech Dev IRD, UMR 241, ILM,IFREMER,UPF,IRD,SECOPOL, Tahiti, France 17.King Abdullah Univ Sci & Technol KAUST, Phys Sci & Engn, Thuwal, Saudi Arabia 18.Univ Hyderabad, Ctr Earth Ocean & Atmospher Sci, Gachibowli, India 19.Ocean Univ China, Acad Future Ocean, Key Lab Phys Oceanog, Frontiers Sci Ctr Deep Ocean Multispheres & Earth, Qingdao, Peoples R China 20.Univ Hawaii Manoa, Sch Ocean & Earth Sci & Technol, Dept Atmospher Sci, Honolulu, HI USA 21.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Collaborat Innovat Ctr Forecast & Evaluat Meteorol, Key Lab Meteorol Disasters, Joint Int Res Lab Climate & Environm Change,Minist, Nanjing, Peoples R China 22.Minist Nat Resources, Inst Oceanog 1, Qingdao, Peoples R China 23.Qingdao Marine Sci & Technol Ctr, Qingdao, Peoples R China 24.Shandong Key Lab Marine Sci & Numer Modeling, Qingdao, Peoples R China 25.Univ Tokyo, Dept Earth & Planetary Sci, Tokyo, Japan 26.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Observat & Forecasting, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao, Peoples R China 27.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang, Guojian,Cai, Wenju,Santoso, Agus,et al. The Indian Ocean Dipole in a warming world[J]. NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT,2024,5(8):588-604.
APA	Wang, Guojian.,Cai, Wenju.,Santoso, Agus.,Abram, Nerilie.,Ng, Benjamin.,...&Li, Xichen.(2024).The Indian Ocean Dipole in a warming world.NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT,5(8),588-604.
MLA	Wang, Guojian,et al."The Indian Ocean Dipole in a warming world".NATURE REVIEWS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT 5.8(2024):588-604.