Reconciling opposite trends in the observed and simulated equatorial Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient

doi:10.1186/s40562-023-00309-3

IOCAS-IR > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	Reconciling opposite trends in the observed and simulated equatorial Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient
	Bai, Wenrong 1,2,4; Liu, Hailong 1,4,6; Lin, Pengfei 1,4; Li, Xichen 3; Wang, Fan5,6
	2023-11-23
发表期刊	GEOSCIENCE LETTERS
ISSN	2196-4092
卷号	10 期号:1 页码:12
通讯作者	Liu, Hailong(lhl@lasg.iap.ac.cn)
摘要	The reasons for large discrepancies between observations and simulations, as well as for uncertainties in projections of the equatorial Pacific zonal sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, are controversial. We used CMIP6 models and large ensemble simulations to show that model bias and internal variabilities affected, i.e., strengthened, the SST gradient between 1981 and 2010. The underestimation of strengthened trends in the southeast trade wind belt, the insufficient cooling effect of eastern Pacific upwelling, and the excessive westward extension of the climatological cold tongue in models jointly caused a weaker SST gradient than the recent observations. The phase transformation of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) could explain similar to 51% of the observed SST gradient strengthening. After adjusting the random IPO phase to the observed IPO change, the adjusted SST gradient trends were closer to observations. We further constrained the projection of SST gradient change by using climate models' ability to reproduce the historical SST gradient intensification or the phase of the IPO. These models suggest a weakened SST gradient in the middle of the twenty-first century.
关键词	Equatorial Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient CMIP6 Large ensemble simulations Model bias Internal variabilities Projection
DOI	10.1186/s40562-023-00309-3
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
资助项目	Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
WOS研究方向	Geology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:001121864600001
出版者	SPRINGER
WOS关键词	SST WARMING PATTERN ; TROPICAL PACIFIC ; COLD-TONGUE ; MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE ; WALKER CIRCULATION ; OCEAN ; MODEL ; VARIABILITY ; UNCERTAINTY ; FEEDBACK
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/184237
专题	海洋环流与波动重点实验室
通讯作者	Liu, Hailong
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geoph, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China 2.Beijing Meteorol Bur, Beijing Municipal Climate Ctr, Beijing 100089, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Int Ctr Climate & Environm Sci ICCES, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China 4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Earth & Planetary Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China 5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China 6.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Ocean Mega Sci, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bai, Wenrong,Liu, Hailong,Lin, Pengfei,et al. Reconciling opposite trends in the observed and simulated equatorial Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient[J]. GEOSCIENCE LETTERS,2023,10(1):12.
APA	Bai, Wenrong,Liu, Hailong,Lin, Pengfei,Li, Xichen,&Wang, Fan.(2023).Reconciling opposite trends in the observed and simulated equatorial Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient.GEOSCIENCE LETTERS,10(1),12.
MLA	Bai, Wenrong,et al."Reconciling opposite trends in the observed and simulated equatorial Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient".GEOSCIENCE LETTERS 10.1(2023):12.

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