IOCAS-IR  > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室
Effects of Wind Stress Uncertainty on Short-Term Prediction of the Kuroshio Extension State Transition Process
Zhang, Hui1,2; Wang, Qiang3,4; Mu, Mu1,5,6; Zhang, Kun1; Geng, Yu7,8
2023-12-01
Source PublicationJOURNAL OF PHYSICAL OCEANOGRAPHY
ISSN0022-3670
Volume53Issue:12Pages:2751-2771
Corresponding AuthorWang, Qiang(wangq@hhu.edu.cn)
AbstractBased on the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation for boundary condition method and Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), this study investigates the influence of wind stress uncertainty on predicting the short-term state transitions of the Kuroshio Extension (KE). The optimal time-dependent wind stress errors that lead to maximum prediction errors are obtained for two KE stable-to-unstable and two reverse transitions, which exhibit local multieddies structures with decreasing magnitude as the end time of prediction approaches. The optimal boundary errors initially induce small oceanic errors through Ekman pumping. Subsequently, these errors grow in magnitude as oceanic internal processes take effect, which exerts significant influences on the short-term prediction of the KE state transition process. Specifically, during stable -to-unstable (unstable-to-stable) transitions, the growing error induces an overestimation (underestimation) of the meridional sea surface height gradient across the KE axis, leading to the predicted KE state being more (less) stable. Furthermore, the dynamics mechanism analysis indicates that barotropic instability is crucial for the error growth in the prediction of both the stable-to-unstable and the reverse transition processes due to the horizontal shear of flow field. But work generated by wind stress error plays a more important role in the prediction of the unstable-to-stable transitions because of the synergistic effect of strong wind stress error and strong oceanic error. Eventually, the sensitive areas have been identified based on the optimal boundary errors. Reducing wind stress errors in sensitive areas can significantly improve prediction skills, offering theoretical guidance for devising observational strategies.
KeywordWind Forecast verification/skill Numerical weather prediction/forecasting Mesoscale models
DOI10.1175/JPO-D-23-0047.1
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectNational Natural Science Foundation of China[42076017] ; National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project Earth System Numerical Simulation Facility (EarthLab) ; Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; Key Scientific Research Projects Plan in Henan Higher Education Institutions[24A170031] ; Oceanographic Data Center
WOS Research AreaOceanography
WOS SubjectOceanography
WOS IDWOS:001113301100002
PublisherAMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
WOS KeywordNONLINEAR OPTIMAL PERTURBATION ; SEA-SURFACE WIND ; DECADAL VARIABILITY ; OYASHIO EXTENSION ; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ; ADJOINT SENSITIVITY ; INITIAL ERRORS ; GULF-STREAM ; OCEAN ; MODEL
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Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/184123
Collection海洋环流与波动重点实验室
Corresponding AuthorWang, Qiang
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, CAS Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
3.Hohai Univ, Key Lab Marine Hazards Forecasting, Minist Nat Resources, Nanjing, Peoples R China
4.Hohai Univ, Coll Oceanog, Nanjing, Peoples R China
5.Fudan Univ, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Shanghai, Peoples R China
6.Fudan Univ, Inst Atmospher Sci, Shanghai, Peoples R China
7.Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, State Key Lab Severe Weather, Beijing, Peoples R China
8.Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, Inst Tibetan Plateau Meteorol, Beijing, Peoples R China
First Author AffilicationInstitute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Zhang, Hui,Wang, Qiang,Mu, Mu,et al. Effects of Wind Stress Uncertainty on Short-Term Prediction of the Kuroshio Extension State Transition Process[J]. JOURNAL OF PHYSICAL OCEANOGRAPHY,2023,53(12):2751-2771.
APA Zhang, Hui,Wang, Qiang,Mu, Mu,Zhang, Kun,&Geng, Yu.(2023).Effects of Wind Stress Uncertainty on Short-Term Prediction of the Kuroshio Extension State Transition Process.JOURNAL OF PHYSICAL OCEANOGRAPHY,53(12),2751-2771.
MLA Zhang, Hui,et al."Effects of Wind Stress Uncertainty on Short-Term Prediction of the Kuroshio Extension State Transition Process".JOURNAL OF PHYSICAL OCEANOGRAPHY 53.12(2023):2751-2771.
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