Modeling the long-term transport and fate of oil spilled from the 2021 A Symphony tanker collision in the Yellow Sea, China: Reliability of the stochastic simulation

doi:10.1016/j.ocemod.2023.102285

IOCAS-IR > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	Modeling the long-term transport and fate of oil spilled from the 2021 A Symphony tanker collision in the Yellow Sea, China: Reliability of the stochastic simulation
	Cao, Ruichen 1,2,5; Rong, Zengrui 1,2,5; Chen, Haibo 3,5; Liu, Yi 1,2,6; Mu, Lin 4; Lv, Xianqing 1,2,5
	2023-12-01
发表期刊	OCEAN MODELLING
ISSN	1463-5003
卷号	186 页码:14
通讯作者	Chen, Haibo(chenhb2015@qdio.ac.cn) ; Mu, Lin(mulin@szu.edu.cn)
摘要	Coupled with a 3D hydrodynamic model, a well-established 3D oil spill model is used to simulate the transport and fate of oil spilled from the A Symphony oil tanker collision in the Yellow Sea on April 27, 2021. The model is first validated by airborne mini-SAR and shipborne X-band radar observation in a 30-day simulation. Subsequently, the model prediction capabilities are investigated over a longer period when hydrodynamic data may not be available. In these cases, hydrodynamic data in earlier years are used for stochastic simulation, and the reliability of a multi-year stochastic simulation is tested. To evaluate the impact of hydrodynamics and meteorological conditions, indexes including oil sweeping area for surface oil, as well as oil centroid trajectory and oil fate for both the surface and subsurface oil, are statistically analyzed for a period up to 90 days after the spill. Over time, the deviation in the stochastic simulation relative to the deterministic simulation increased in the modeled oil transport, indicating an error accumulation. However, in the modeled oil fate, the deviation showed an interesting variation of first increasing and then gradually decreasing. This phenomenon can be attributed to three contributing factors: (1) limitations in empirical equations used in the model; (2) limited environmental impact of the spill; (3) differential role of small-scale ocean processes in short- and long-term simulations. The uncertainty in stochastic members may serve as an indicator of forecast accuracy.
关键词	A Symphony oil spill Pollution probability Stochastic simulation Uncertainty analysis
DOI	10.1016/j.ocemod.2023.102285
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[U2006210] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[U1806214] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41806111] ; National Key Research and Development Plan[2019YFC1408405] ; High Performance Computing Center at the Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Oceanography
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Oceanography
WOS记录号	WOS:001110856100001
出版者	ELSEVIER SCI LTD
WOS关键词	IMPACT
引用统计	被引频次：2[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/184029
专题	海洋环流与波动重点实验室
通讯作者	Chen, Haibo; Mu, Lin
作者单位	1.Ocean Univ China, Frontier Sci Ctr Deep Ocean Multispheres & Earth S, Qingdao 266100, Peoples R China 2.Ocean Univ China, Phys Oceanog Lab, Qingdao 266100, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, CAS Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Inst Oceanol, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China 4.Shenzhen Univ, Coll Life Sci & Oceanog, Shenzhen 518060, Peoples R China 5.Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol, Qingdao 266100, Peoples R China 6.CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Aspendale, Vic 3195, Australia
通讯作者单位	中国科学院海洋研究所
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Cao, Ruichen,Rong, Zengrui,Chen, Haibo,et al. Modeling the long-term transport and fate of oil spilled from the 2021 A Symphony tanker collision in the Yellow Sea, China: Reliability of the stochastic simulation[J]. OCEAN MODELLING,2023,186:14.
APA	Cao, Ruichen,Rong, Zengrui,Chen, Haibo,Liu, Yi,Mu, Lin,&Lv, Xianqing.(2023).Modeling the long-term transport and fate of oil spilled from the 2021 A Symphony tanker collision in the Yellow Sea, China: Reliability of the stochastic simulation.OCEAN MODELLING,186,14.
MLA	Cao, Ruichen,et al."Modeling the long-term transport and fate of oil spilled from the 2021 A Symphony tanker collision in the Yellow Sea, China: Reliability of the stochastic simulation".OCEAN MODELLING 186(2023):14.

条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小	文献类型	版本类型	开放类型	使用许可
1-s2.0-S146350032300（10180KB）	期刊论文	出版稿	限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览