A successful real-time forecast of the 2010–11 La Nina event

IOCAS-IR > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	A successful real-time forecast of the 2010–11 La Nina event
	Zhang Ronghua; Zheng Fei; Zhu Jiang; Wang Zhanggui
	2013-01-23
发表期刊	SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
期号	3 页码:1108
其他摘要	During 2010-11, a La Nina condition prevailed in the tropical Pacific. An intermediate coupled model (ICM) is used to demonstrate a real-time forecast of sea surface temperature (SST) evolution during the event. One of the ICM's unique features is an empirical parameterization of the temperature of subsurface water entrained into the mixed layer (T-e). This model provided a good prediction, particularly of the "double dip" evolution of SST in 2011 that followed the La Nina event peak in October 2010. Thermocline feedback, explicitly represented by the relationship between Te and sea level in the ICM, is a crucial factor affecting the second cooling in 2011. Large negative Te anomalies were observed to persist in the central equatorial domain during 2010-11, inducing a cold SST anomaly to the east during July-August 2011 and leading to the development of a La Nina condition thereafter.
关键词	Intermediate Coupled Model Tropical Pacific-ocean El-nino Southern-oscillation Entrainment Temperature Enso Prediction Predictability Climate System
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/18190
专题	海洋环流与波动重点实验室
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang Ronghua,Zheng Fei,Zhu Jiang,等. A successful real-time forecast of the 2010–11 La Nina event[J]. SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,2013(3):1108.
APA	Zhang Ronghua,Zheng Fei,Zhu Jiang,&Wang Zhanggui.(2013).A successful real-time forecast of the 2010–11 La Nina event.SCIENTIFIC REPORTS(3),1108.
MLA	Zhang Ronghua,et al."A successful real-time forecast of the 2010–11 La Nina event".SCIENTIFIC REPORTS .3(2013):1108.

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