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Ensemble ENSO Hindcasts Initialized from Multiple Ocean Analyses
Zhu Jieshun; Huang Bohua; Marx Lawrence; Kinter James L. III; Balmaseda Magdalena A.; Zhang Ronghua; Hu Zengzhen
2012-05-04
发表期刊GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
卷号39期号:9页码:L09602
摘要    In this study, the impact of ocean initial conditions (OIC) on the prediction skill in the tropical Pacific Ocean is examined. Four sets of OIC are used to initialize the 12-month hindcasts of the tropical climate from 1979 to 2007, using the Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), the current operational climate prediction model at the National Centers for Environmental Predictions (NCEP). These OICs are chosen from four ocean analyses produced by the NCEP and the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). For each hindcast starting from a given OIC, four ensemble members are generated with different atmosphere and land initial states. The predictive skill in the tropical Pacific Ocean is assessed based on the ensemble mean hindcasts from each individual as well as multiple oceanic analyses. To reduce the climate drift from various oceanic analyses, an anomaly initialization strategy is used for all hindcasts. The results indicate that there exists a substantial spread in the sea surface temperature (SST) prediction skill with different ocean analyses. Specifically, the ENSO prediction skill in terms of the anomaly correlation of Nino-3.4 index can differ by as much as 0.1-0.2 at lead times longer than 2 months. The ensemble mean of the predictions initialized from all four ocean analyses gives prediction skill equivalent to the best one derived from the individual ocean analysis. It is suggested that more accurate OIC can improve the ENSO prediction skill and an ensemble ocean initialization has the potential of enhancing the skill at the present stage.
关键词Climate Forecast System El-nino Seasonal Climate Coupled Model Part Ii Prediction Ncep Predictability Assimilation Simulation
收录类别SCI
语种英语
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/18160
专题海洋环流与波动重点实验室
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GB/T 7714
Zhu Jieshun,Huang Bohua,Marx Lawrence,et al. Ensemble ENSO Hindcasts Initialized from Multiple Ocean Analyses[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2012,39(9):L09602.
APA Zhu Jieshun.,Huang Bohua.,Marx Lawrence.,Kinter James L. III.,Balmaseda Magdalena A..,...&Hu Zengzhen.(2012).Ensemble ENSO Hindcasts Initialized from Multiple Ocean Analyses.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,39(9),L09602.
MLA Zhu Jieshun,et al."Ensemble ENSO Hindcasts Initialized from Multiple Ocean Analyses".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 39.9(2012):L09602.
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