IOCAS-IR  > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室
Ensemble hindcasts of SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific using an intermediate coupled model
Zheng Fei; Zhu Jiang; Zhang Ronghua; Zhou Guangqing
2006-10-05
发表期刊GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
卷号33期号:19页码:L19604
摘要    Ensemble hindcasts of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific are studied using an intermediate coupled model (ICM), in which an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) data assimilation system is implemented to provide the initial ensemble. A linear, first-order Markov stochastic model is adopted to represent model errors. Parameters in the stochastic model are estimated by comparing observation-minus-forecast values over 30 years. Twelve-month, 120 ensemble hindcasts are performed over the period 1995-2004, each with 100 ensemble members. This ensemble technique provides a simple method of extending the standard ICM forecasts to the probabilistic domain. The results show that the prediction skill of the ensemble mean is better than that of one single deterministic forecast using the same ICM. For the probabilistic perspective, those ensemble forecasts have their ensembles following observed SST anomaly variations well.
关键词Prediction Forecasts
收录类别SCI
语种英语
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/18146
专题海洋环流与波动重点实验室
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GB/T 7714
Zheng Fei,Zhu Jiang,Zhang Ronghua,et al. Ensemble hindcasts of SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific using an intermediate coupled model[J]. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,2006,33(19):L19604.
APA Zheng Fei,Zhu Jiang,Zhang Ronghua,&Zhou Guangqing.(2006).Ensemble hindcasts of SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific using an intermediate coupled model.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,33(19),L19604.
MLA Zheng Fei,et al."Ensemble hindcasts of SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific using an intermediate coupled model".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 33.19(2006):L19604.
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