Improved ENSO forecasts by assimilating sea surface temperature observations into an intermediate coupled model

IOCAS-IR > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	Improved ENSO forecasts by assimilating sea surface temperature observations into an intermediate coupled model
	Zheng Fei; Zhu Jiang; Zhang Ronghua; Zhou Guangqing
	2006-07
发表期刊	ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
卷号	23 期号:4 页码:615-624
摘要	A simple method for initializing intermediate coupled models (ICMs) using only sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly data is comprehensively tested in two sets of hindcasts with a new ICM. In the initialization scheme, both the magnitude of the nudging parameter and the duration of the assimilation are considered, and initial conditions for both atmosphere and ocean are generated by running the coupled model with SST anomalies nudged to the observations. A comparison with the observations indicates that the scheme can generate realistic thermal fields and surface dynamic fields in the equatorial Pacific through hindcast experiments. An ideal experiment is performed to get the optimal nudging parameters which include the nudging intensity and nudging time length. Twelve-month-long hindcast experiments are performed with the model over the period 1984-2003 and the period 1997-2003. Compared with the original prediction results, the model prediction skills are significantly improved by the nudging method especially beyond a 6-month lead time during the two different periods. Potential problems and further improvements are discussed regarding the new coupled assimilation system.
关键词	Enso Intermediate Coupled Model Prediction Skill Hindcast
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/18145
专题	海洋环流与波动重点实验室
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zheng Fei,Zhu Jiang,Zhang Ronghua,et al. Improved ENSO forecasts by assimilating sea surface temperature observations into an intermediate coupled model[J]. ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,2006,23(4):615-624.
APA	Zheng Fei,Zhu Jiang,Zhang Ronghua,&Zhou Guangqing.(2006).Improved ENSO forecasts by assimilating sea surface temperature observations into an intermediate coupled model.ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,23(4),615-624.
MLA	Zheng Fei,et al."Improved ENSO forecasts by assimilating sea surface temperature observations into an intermediate coupled model".ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 23.4(2006):615-624.

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