Institutional Repository of Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Wave Studies, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
| Influence of Arctic Sea Ice Concentration on Extended-Range Prediction of Strong and Long-Lasting Ural Blocking Events in Winter | |
Ma, Xueying1,2 ; Mu, Mu3,4; Dai, Guokun3,5; Han, Zhe6; Li, Chunxiang6; Jiang, Zhina7
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| 2022-03-16 | |
| Source Publication | JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
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| ISSN | 2169-897X |
| Volume | 127Issue:5Pages:15 |
| Corresponding Author | Mu, Mu(mumu@fudan.edu.cn) |
| Abstract | It is traditionally considered that the predictability of atmosphere reaches approximately 2 weeks due to its chaotic features. Considering boundary conditions, the lead prediction time can exceed 2 weeks in certain cases. We find that the Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) is crucial for extended-range prediction of strong and long-lasting Ural blocking (UB) formation. By applying the rotated empirical orthogonal function-based particle swarm optimization algorithm, the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation is calculated with the Community Atmosphere Model, version 4, to identify the optimally growing boundary errors in extended-range prediction of strong and long-lasting UB formation. It is found that SIC perturbations in the Greenland Sea (GS), Barents Sea (BS), and Okhotsk Sea (OKS) are important for strong and long-lasting UB formation prediction in four pentads. Further analysis reveals that the SIC perturbations in these areas first influence the local temperature field through the diabatic heating process and further affect the temperature field in the Ural sector mainly by advection and convection processes. Moreover, the zonal winds in the Ural sector are adjusted by the thermal wind balance, thus affecting UB formation. The local characteristics of the SIC perturbations indicate that the GS, BS, and OKS may be sensitive areas in regard to extended-range prediction of strong and long-lasting UB formation, which can provide scientific support for the SIC target observations in the future. |
| DOI | 10.1029/2021JD036282 |
| Indexed By | SCI |
| Language | 英语 |
| Funding Project | National Natural Science Foundation of China[41790475] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[42005046] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41775001] ; National Supercomputer Center in Guangzhou (NSCC-GZ) ; High Performance Computing Center at the Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences |
| WOS Research Area | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS Subject | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS ID | WOS:000771343200036 |
| Publisher | AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION |
| Citation statistics | |
| Document Type | 期刊论文 |
| Identifier | http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/178616 |
| Collection | 海洋环流与波动重点实验室 |
| Corresponding Author | Mu, Mu |
| Affiliation | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, CAS Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao, Peoples R China 2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Fudan Univ, Inst Atmospher Sci, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Shanghai, Peoples R China 4.Zhuhai Fudan Innovat Res Inst, Innovat Ctr Ocean & Atmosphere Syst, Zhuhai, Peoples R China 5.CMA FDU Joint Lab Marine Meteorol, Shanghai, Peoples R China 6.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, CAS Key Lab Reg Climate Environm Temperate East A, Beijing, Peoples R China 7.Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, State Key Lab Severe Weather, Beijing, Peoples R China |
| First Author Affilication | Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences |
| Recommended Citation GB/T 7714 | Ma, Xueying,Mu, Mu,Dai, Guokun,et al. Influence of Arctic Sea Ice Concentration on Extended-Range Prediction of Strong and Long-Lasting Ural Blocking Events in Winter[J]. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,2022,127(5):15. |
| APA | Ma, Xueying,Mu, Mu,Dai, Guokun,Han, Zhe,Li, Chunxiang,&Jiang, Zhina.(2022).Influence of Arctic Sea Ice Concentration on Extended-Range Prediction of Strong and Long-Lasting Ural Blocking Events in Winter.JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES,127(5),15. |
| MLA | Ma, Xueying,et al."Influence of Arctic Sea Ice Concentration on Extended-Range Prediction of Strong and Long-Lasting Ural Blocking Events in Winter".JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES 127.5(2022):15. |
| Files in This Item: | ||||||
| File Name/Size | DocType | Version | Access | License | ||
| JGR Atmospheres - 20（13412KB） | 期刊论文 | 出版稿 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | View | |
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