IOCAS-IR  > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室
Global exposure of population and land-use to meteorological droughts under different Warming Levels and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: A Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-based study
Spinoni, Jonathan1; Barbosa, Paulo1; Bucchignani, Edoardo2,29; Cassano, John3; Cavazos, Tereza4; Cescatti, Alessandro1; Christensen, Jens Hesselbjerg5,6,28; Christensen, Ole Bossing6; Coppola, Erika7; Evans, Jason8; Forzieri, Giovanni1; Geyer, Beate9; Giorgi, Filippo1,7; Jacob, Daniela11; Katzfey, Jack12; Koenigk, Torben13; Laprise, Rene14; Lennard, Christopher John15; Levent Kurnaz, M.16,17; Li, Delei18; Llopart, Marta19; McCormick, Niall1; Naumann, Gustavo1; Nikulin, Grigory13; Ozturk, Tugba20; Panitz, Hans-Jurgen21; da Rocha, Rosmeri Porfirio22; Solman, Silvina Alicia23,24; Syktus, Jozef25; Tangang, Fredolin26; Teichmann, Claas11; Vautard, Robert27; Vogt, Jurgen Valentin1; Winger, Katja14; Zittis, George10; Dosio, Alessandro1
2021-08-04
Source PublicationINTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN0899-8418
Pages28
Corresponding AuthorSpinoni, Jonathan(jonathan.spinoni@ec.europa.eu)
AbstractGlobal warming is likely to cause a progressive drought increase in some regions, but how population and natural resources will be affected is still underexplored. This study focuses on global population and land-use (forests, croplands, pastures) exposure to meteorological drought hazard in the 21st century, expressed as frequency and severity of drought events. As input, we use a large ensemble of climate simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment, population projections from the NASA-SEDAC dataset, and land-use projections from the Land-Use Harmonization 2 project for 1981-2100. The exposure to drought hazard is presented for five SSPs (SSP1-SSP5) at four Global Warming Levels (GWLs, from 1.5 to 4 degrees C). Results show that considering only Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI; based on precipitation), the combination SSP3-GWL4 projects the largest fraction of the global population (14%) to experience an increase in drought frequency and severity (vs. 1981-2010), with this value increasing to 60% if temperature is considered (indirectly included in the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, SPEI). With SPEI, considering the highest GWL for each SSP, 8 (for SSP2, SSP4, and SSP5) and 11 (SSP3) billion people, that is, more than 90%, will be affected by at least one unprecedented drought. For SSP5 (fossil-fuelled development) at GWL 4 degrees C, approximately 2 center dot 10(6) km(2) of forests and croplands (respectively, 6 and 11%) and 1.5 center dot 10(6) km(2) of pastures (19%) will be exposed to increased drought frequency and severity according to SPI, but for SPEI, this extent will rise to 17 center dot 10(6) km(2) of forests (49%), 6 center dot 10(6) km(2) of pastures (78%), and 12 center dot 10(6) km(2) of croplands (67%), with mid-latitudes being the most affected areas. The projected likely increase of drought frequency and severity significantly increases population and land-use exposure to drought, even at low GWLs, thus extensive mitigation and adaptation efforts are needed to avoid the most severe impacts of climate change.
Keywordclimate projections CORDEX drought global warming levels land-use population socioeconomic scenarios
DOI10.1002/joc.7302
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
WOS Research AreaMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS SubjectMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000681018300001
PublisherWILEY
Citation statistics
Cited Times:1[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/176011
Collection海洋环流与波动重点实验室
Corresponding AuthorSpinoni, Jonathan
Affiliation1.European Commiss, Joint Res Ctr JRC, Vianrico Fermi 2749, I-21027 Ispra, Italy
2.Ctr Euro Mediterraneo Cambiamenti Climatici CMCC, REMHI Div, Caserta, Italy
3.Univ Colorado, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci CIRES, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Snow & Ice Data Ctr, Boulder, CO USA
4.Ctr Invest Cient Educ Super Ensenada CICESE, Baja California, Mexico
5.Univ Copenhagen, Niels Bohr Inst NBI, Copenhagen, Denmark
6.Danish Meteorol Inst, Copenhagen, Denmark
7.Abdus Salam Int Ctr Theoret Phys ICTP, Trieste, Italy
8.Univ New South Wales, Fac Sci, Sydney, NSW, Australia
9.Inst Coastal Res, Helmholtz Zent Geesthacht HZG, Hamburg, Germany
10.Cyprus Inst CyI, Climate & Atmosphere Res Ctr CARE C, Nicosia, Cyprus
11.Climate Serv Ctr Germany GERICS, Helmholtz Zent Geesthacht, Hamburg, Germany
12.Commonwealth Sci & Ind Res Org CSIRO, Marine & Atmospher Res, Aspendale, Vic, Australia
13.Swedish Meteorol & Hydrol Inst SMHI, Rossby Ctr, Norrkoping, Sweden
14.Univ Quebec Montreal UQAM, Dept Sci Terre & IAtmosphere, Montreal, PQ, Canada
15.Univ Cape Town, Climate Syst Anal Grp CSAG, Cape Town, South Africa
16.Bogazici Univ, Fac Arts & Sci, Dept Phys, Istanbul, Turkey
17.Bogazici Univ, Ctr Climate Change & Policy Studies, Istanbul, Turkey
18.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao, Peoples R China
19.Sao Paulo State Univ, Bauru Meteorol Ctr IPMet UNESP, Bauru, SP, Brazil
20.Isik Univ, Fac Arts & Sci, Dept Phys, Istanbul, Turkey
21.Karlsruhe Inst Technol KIT, Inst Meteorol & Climate Res, Karlsruhe, Germany
22.Univ Sao Paulo, Dept Ciencias Atmosfer, Sao Paulo, Brazil
23.Univ Buenos Aires, Fac Ciencias Exactas Nat, Dept Ciencias Atmosfera Oceanos DCAO FCEN UBA, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina
24.Univ Buenos Aires, Ctr Investigac Mar Atmosfera CIMA CONICE UBA, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina
25.Univ Queensland, Sch Biol Sci, Brisbane, Qld, Australia
26.Natl Univ Malaysia UKM, Dept Earth Sci & Environm, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia
27.Natl Ctr Sci Res CNRS, Inst PierreSimon Laplace IPSL, Lab Sci Climat & lEnvironm LSCE, Gif Sur Yvette, France
28.NORCE, Norwegian Res Ctr AS, Bergen, Norway
29.Ctr Italiano Ric Aerosp CIRA, Capua, Italy
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Spinoni, Jonathan,Barbosa, Paulo,Bucchignani, Edoardo,et al. Global exposure of population and land-use to meteorological droughts under different Warming Levels and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: A Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-based study[J]. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,2021:28.
APA Spinoni, Jonathan.,Barbosa, Paulo.,Bucchignani, Edoardo.,Cassano, John.,Cavazos, Tereza.,...&Dosio, Alessandro.(2021).Global exposure of population and land-use to meteorological droughts under different Warming Levels and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: A Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-based study.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY,28.
MLA Spinoni, Jonathan,et al."Global exposure of population and land-use to meteorological droughts under different Warming Levels and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: A Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment-based study".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY (2021):28.
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