Anthropogenic Influences on 2019 July Precipitation Extremes Over the Mid-Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River

doi:10.3389/fenvs.2020.603061

IOCAS-IR > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	Anthropogenic Influences on 2019 July Precipitation Extremes Over the Mid-Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River
	Nanding, Nergui 1; Chen, Yang 2; Wu, Huan 1; Dong, Buwen 3; Tian, Fangxing 3; Lott, Fraser C.4; Tett, Simon F. B.5; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel Angel 6; Chen, Yiheng 6; Huang, Zhijun 1; Yan, Yan 1; Li, Delei 7; Li, Rouke 8; Wang, Xuan 9; Fan, Xuewei 10
	2020-11-25
发表期刊	FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
卷号	8 页码:6
通讯作者	Wu, Huan(wuhuan3@mail.sysu.edu.cn)
摘要	Understanding the driving factors for precipitation extremes matters for adaptation and mitigation measures against the changing hydrometeorological hazards in Yangtze River basin, a habitable area that provides water resources for domestic, farming, and industrial needs. However, the region is naturally subject to major floods linked to monsoonal heavy precipitation during May-September. This study aims to quantify anthropogenic influences on the changing risk of 2-week-long precipitation extremes such as the July 2019 extreme cases, as well as events of shorter durations, over the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River basin (MLYRB). Precipitation extremes with different durations ranging from 1-day to 14-days maximum precipitation accumulations are investigated. Gridded daily precipitations based on nearly 2,400 meteorological stations across China are used to define maximum accumulated precipitation extremes over the MLYRB in July during 1961-2019. Attribution analysis is conducted by using the Met Office HadGEM3-GA6 modeling system, which comprises two sets of 525-member ensembles for 2019. One is forced with observed sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), sea-ice and all forcings, and the other is forced with preindustrialized SSTs and natural forcings only. The risk ratio between the exceedance probabilities estimated from all-forcing and natural-forcing simulations is calculated to quantify the anthropogenic contribution to the changing risks of the July 2019-like precipitation extremes. The results reveal that anthropogenic warming has reduced the likelihood of 2019-like 14-days heavy precipitation over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River by 20%, but increased that of 2-days extremes by 30%.
关键词	precipitation extreme events climate change Yangtze (Changjiang) catchment attribution studies anthropogenic influence
DOI	10.3389/fenvs.2020.603061
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
资助项目	National Key RD Program[2018YFC1507700] ; National Key RD Program[2017YFA0605004] ; UKChina Research and Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) China as part of the Newton Fund ; Natural Science Foundation (NSF) of China[41975105] ; NSF of China[41905101] ; NSF of China[U1811464] ; NSF of China[41861144014] ; NSF of China[41775106] ; NSF of China[41991254] ; NSF of China[41706019] ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities[20lgpy25] ; Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDB42000000] ; UK-China Research and Innovation Partnership Fund through the Met Office Climate Science for Service Partnership (CSSP) China as part of the Newton Fund
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000597154400001
出版者	FRONTIERS MEDIA SA
引用统计	被引频次：8[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/169384
专题	海洋环流与波动重点实验室
通讯作者	Wu, Huan
作者单位	1.Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Atmospher Sci, Guangdong Prov Key Lab Climate Change & Nat Disas, Guangzhou, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Meteorol Sci, State Key Lab Severe Weather, Beijing, Peoples R China 3.Univ Reading, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Dept Meteorol, Reading, Berks, England 4.Met Off Hadley Ctr, Exeter, Devon, England 5.Univ Edinburgh, Sch Geosci, Edinburgh, Midlothian, Scotland 6.Univ Bristol, Dept Civil Engn, Bristol, Avon, England 7.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, CAS Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao, Peoples R China 8.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Earth Environm, SKLLQG, Xian, Peoples R China 9.Nanjing Univ, Sch Atmospher Sci, Key Lab Mesoscale Severe Weather, Nanjing, Peoples R China 10.Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Fac Geog Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Nanding, Nergui,Chen, Yang,Wu, Huan,et al. Anthropogenic Influences on 2019 July Precipitation Extremes Over the Mid-Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River[J]. FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE,2020,8:6.
APA	Nanding, Nergui.,Chen, Yang.,Wu, Huan.,Dong, Buwen.,Tian, Fangxing.,...&Fan, Xuewei.(2020).Anthropogenic Influences on 2019 July Precipitation Extremes Over the Mid-Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River.FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE,8,6.
MLA	Nanding, Nergui,et al."Anthropogenic Influences on 2019 July Precipitation Extremes Over the Mid-Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River".FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE 8(2020):6.

条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小	文献类型	版本类型	开放类型	使用许可
fenvs-08-603061.pdf（1500KB）	期刊论文	出版稿	限制开放	CC BY-NC-SA	浏览