Future Global Meteorological Drought Hot Spots: A Study Based on CORDEX Data
Spinoni, Jonathan1; Barbosa, Paulo1; Bucchignani, Edoardo2; Cassano, John3,4; Cavazos, Tereza5; Christensen, Jens H.6,7,30; Christensen, Ole B.7; Coppola, Erika8; Evans, Jason9; Geyer, Beate10; Giorgi, Filippo8; Hadjinicolaou, Panos11; Jacob, Daniela12; Katzfey, Jack13; Koenigk, Torben14; Laprise, Rene15; Lennard, Christopher J.16; Kurnaz, M. Levent17,18; Li, Delei19; Llopart, Marta20,21; McCormick, Niall1; Naumann, Gustavo1; Nikulin, Grigory14; Ozturk, Tugba22; Panitz, Hans-Juergen23; da Rocha, Rosmeri Porfirio24; Rockel, Burkhardt10; Solman, Silvina A.25,26; Syktus, Jozef27; Tangang, Fredolin28; Teichmann, Claas12; Vautard, Robert29; Vogt, Juergen V.1; Winger, Katja15; Zittis, George11; Dosio, Alessandro1
Source PublicationJOURNAL OF CLIMATE
Corresponding AuthorSpinoni, Jonathan(
AbstractTwo questions motivated this study: 1) Will meteorological droughts become more frequent and severe during the twenty-first century? 2) Given the projected global temperature rise, to what extent does the inclusion of temperature (in addition to precipitation) in drought indicators play a role in future meteorological droughts? To answer, we analyzed the changes in drought frequency, severity, and historically undocumented extreme droughts over 1981-2100, using the standardized precipitation index (SPI; including precipitation only) and standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI; indirectly including temperature), and under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). As input data, we employed 103 high-resolution (0.44 degrees) simulations from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), based on a combination of 16 global circulation models (GCMs) and 20 regional circulation models (RCMs). This is the first study on global drought projections including RCMs based on such a large ensemble of RCMs. Based on precipitation only, similar to 15% of the global land is likely to experience more frequent and severe droughts during 2071-2100 versus 1981-2010 for both scenarios. This increase is larger (similar to 47% under RCP4.5, similar to 49% under RCP8.5) when precipitation and temperature are used. Both SPI and SPEI project more frequent and severe droughts, especially under RCP8.5, over southern South America, the Mediterranean region, southern Africa, southeastern China, Japan, and southern Australia. A decrease in drought is projected for high latitudes in Northern Hemisphere and Southeast Asia. If temperature is included, drought characteristics are projected to increase over North America, Amazonia, central Europe and Asia, the Horn of Africa, India, and central Australia; if only precipitation is considered, they are found to decrease over those areas.
Indexed BySCI
WOS Research AreaMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS SubjectMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000568259800013
Citation statistics
Cited Times:80[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Corresponding AuthorSpinoni, Jonathan
Affiliation1.European Commiss, Joint Res Ctr, Ispra, Italy
2.Ctr Euromediterraneo Cambiamenti Climat, Lecce, Italy
3.Univ Colorado, Cooperat Inst Res Environm Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA
4.Univ Colorado, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA
5.Ctr Invest Cient & Educ Super Ensenada, Ensenada, Baja California, Mexico
6.Univ Copenhagen, Niels Bohr Inst, Copenhagen, Denmark
7.Danish Meteorol Inst, Copenhagen, Denmark
8.Abdus Salam Int Ctr Theoret Phys, Trieste, Italy
9.Univ New South Wales, Fac Sci, Sydney, NSW, Australia
10.Helmholtz Zentrum Geesthacht, Inst Coastal Res, Hamburg, Germany
11.Cyprus Inst, Energy Environm & Water Res Ctr, Nicosia, Cyprus
12.Climate Serv Ctr Germany, Hamburg, Germany
13.Commonwealth Sci & Ind Res Org Marine & Atmospher, Aspendale, Vic, Australia
14.Swedish Meteorol & Hydrol Inst, Rossby Ctr, Norrkoping, Sweden
15.Univ Quebeca Montreal, Dept Sci Terre & Atmosphere, Montreal, PQ, Canada
16.Univ Cape Town, Climate Syst Anal Grp, Cape Town, South Africa
17.Bogazici Univ, Fac Arts & Sci, Dept Phys, Istanbul, Turkey
18.Bogazici Univ, Ctr Climate Change & Policy Studies, Istanbul, Turkey
19.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Qingdao, Peoples R China
20.Sao Paulo State Univ, Bauru, SP, Brazil
21.Bauru Meteorol Ctr IPMet UNESP, Bauru, SP, Brazil
22.Isik Univ, Fac Arts & Sci, Dept Phys, Istanbul, Turkey
23.Karlsruhe Inst Technol, Inst Meteorol & Climate Res, Karlsruhe, Germany
24.Univ Sao Paulo, Dept Ciencias Atmosfer, Sao Paulo, Brazil
25.Univ Buenos Aires, Fac Ciencias Exactas & Nat, Dept Ciencias Atmosfera & Oceanos, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina
26.Univ Buenos Aires, Ctr Invest Mar & Atmosfera, Buenos Aires, DF, Argentina
27.Univ Queensland, Global Change Inst, Brisbane, Qld, Australia
28.Natl Univ Malaysia UKM, Dept Earth Sci & Environm, Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia
29.Natl Ctr Sci Res, Lab Sci Climat & Environm, Gif Sur Yvette, France
30.Norwegian Res Ctr AS NORCE, Bergen, Norway
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Spinoni, Jonathan,Barbosa, Paulo,Bucchignani, Edoardo,et al. Future Global Meteorological Drought Hot Spots: A Study Based on CORDEX Data[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2020,33(9):3635-3661.
APA Spinoni, Jonathan.,Barbosa, Paulo.,Bucchignani, Edoardo.,Cassano, John.,Cavazos, Tereza.,...&Dosio, Alessandro.(2020).Future Global Meteorological Drought Hot Spots: A Study Based on CORDEX Data.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,33(9),3635-3661.
MLA Spinoni, Jonathan,et al."Future Global Meteorological Drought Hot Spots: A Study Based on CORDEX Data".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 33.9(2020):3635-3661.
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