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The unusual 2014-2016 El Nino events: Dynamics, prediction and enlightenments
Xie, Ruihuang1,2,3; Fang, Xianghui4,5,6
Corresponding AuthorFang, Xianghui(
AbstractThe 2014-2016 El Nino events consist of a stalled El Nino event in the winter of 2014/2015 and a following extreme El Nino event in the end of 2015. Neither event was successfully predicted in operational prediction models. Because of the unusual evolutions of these events that rarely happened in the historical observations, few experience was ready for understanding and predicting the two El Nino events when they occurred. Also due to their specialties, considerable attention were attracted with aims to reveal the hidden mechanisms. This article reviews the recent progresses and knowledge that were obtained in these studies. Emerging from these studies, it was argued that the key factor that was responsible for the stalled El Nino in 2014 was the unexpected summertime Easterly Wind Surges (EWSs) or the lack of summertime Westerly Wind Bursts (WWBs). Most operational prediction models failed to reproduce such stochastic winds and thus made unrealistic forecasts. The two El Nino events awakened the research community again to incorporate the state-of-the-art climate models to simulate the stochastic winds and investigate their roles in the development of El Nino.
KeywordEl Nino Westerly Wind Bursts Easterly Wind Surges Operational prediction models
Indexed BySCI
WOS Research AreaGeology
WOS SubjectGeosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS IDWOS:000527003100002
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Document Type期刊论文
Corresponding AuthorFang, Xianghui
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, CAS Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Inst Oceanol, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Ocean Mega Sci, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China
3.Pilot Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol Qingdao, Lab Ocean & Climate Dynam, Qingdao 266237, Peoples R China
4.Fudan Univ, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Shanghai 200438, Peoples R China
5.Fudan Univ, Inst Atmospher Sci, Shanghai 200438, Peoples R China
6.Zhuhai Fudan Innovat Res Inst, Innovat Ctr Ocean & Atmosphere Syst, Zhuhai 518057, Peoples R China
First Author AffilicationInstitute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Xie, Ruihuang,Fang, Xianghui. The unusual 2014-2016 El Nino events: Dynamics, prediction and enlightenments[J]. SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES,2020,63(5):626-633.
APA Xie, Ruihuang,&Fang, Xianghui.(2020).The unusual 2014-2016 El Nino events: Dynamics, prediction and enlightenments.SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES,63(5),626-633.
MLA Xie, Ruihuang,et al."The unusual 2014-2016 El Nino events: Dynamics, prediction and enlightenments".SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES 63.5(2020):626-633.
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