Projecting changes in the distribution and maximum catch potential of warm water fishes under climate change scenarios in the Yellow Sea

doi:10.1111/ddi.13032

IOCAS-IR

	Projecting changes in the distribution and maximum catch potential of warm water fishes under climate change scenarios in the Yellow Sea
	Zhu, Yugui 1; Zhang, Zhixin 2; Reygondeau, Gabriel 3,4; Chu, Jiansong 5; Hong, Xuguang 6; Wang, Yunfeng 7; Cheung, William W. L.4
	2020-04-21
发表期刊	DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS
ISSN	1366-9516
页码	12
通讯作者	Chu, Jiansong(oucjs@ouc.edu.cn) ; Cheung, William W. L.(w.cheung@oceans.ubc.ca)
摘要	Aim Ocean warming has been observed in a number of marine ecosystems and is believed to influence marine species in many ways, such as through changes in distribution range and abundance. In this study, we investigated the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution and maximum catch potential of 34 warm water fishes from 2000 to 2060. Location Yellow Sea, China. Methods We used a dynamic bioclimate envelope model under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios with Earth system models, including GFDL, IPSL, MPI and their ensemble average, to predict current species distributions and their relative abundance and project future species distributions and maximum catch potential (MCP). Results are subsequently summarized by indices such latitudinal centroid (LC) and mean temperature of relative abundance (MTRA). Results Our results showed that the 34 warm water fish species in the Yellow Sea will likely shift to lower latitude regions under future climate change scenarios. In particular, the average LC in the Earth system models of GFDL, IPSL and MPI from 1970 to 2060 is projected to shift at rate of -2.96 +/- 1.29 (SE) and -3.20 +/- 1.94 (SE) km per decade under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. In addition, the corresponding maximum catch potential is decreased under the above climate change scenarios. The projected changes in the distribution may have major ecological and socio-economic importance as well as implications for invasive species management, marine ranching construction and shifts in fishing grounds. Main conclusions The projected distribution of 34 warm water fish species in the Yellow Sea shifted to lower latitudes from 2000 to 2060 following both RCP scenarios and Earth system models. This result is contrary to the projections of previous studies suggesting that fish species can shift to higher latitudes or deeper waters under increased temperature scenarios. This difference might be due to the semi-enclosed shelf sea of Yellow Sea, which is commonly influenced by the fluctuation of the coastal current, the warm current, the cold water mass and overfishing.
关键词	climate change dynamic bioclimate envelope model extinction and invasion maximum potential catch species richness warm water fish species Yellow Sea
DOI	10.1111/ddi.13032
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
资助项目	Nippon Foundation-Nereus Program ; Key Special Project for Introduced Talents Team of Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Guangzhou)[GML2019ZD0402] ; Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (SCUT)
WOS研究方向	Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology
WOS记录号	WOS:000527020000001
出版者	WILEY
引用统计	被引频次：9[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/167131
专题	中国科学院海洋研究所
通讯作者	Chu, Jiansong; Cheung, William W. L.
作者单位	1.Ocean Univ China, Coll Fisheries, Qingdao, Peoples R China 2.Tokyo Univ Marine Sci & Technol, Grad Sch Marine Sci & Technol, Tokyo, Japan 3.Yale Univ, Yale Ctr Biodivers Movement & Global Change, Dept Ecol & Evolutionary Biol Max Planck, New Haven, CT USA 4.Univ British Columbia, Inst Oceans & Fisheries, Changing Ocean Res Unit, Vancouver, BC, Canada 5.Ocean Univ China, Coll Marine Life Sci, Qingdao 266003, Shandong, Peoples R China 6.First Inst Oceanog, Dept Nat Resources, Qingdao, Peoples R China 7.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Qingdao, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhu, Yugui,Zhang, Zhixin,Reygondeau, Gabriel,et al. Projecting changes in the distribution and maximum catch potential of warm water fishes under climate change scenarios in the Yellow Sea[J]. DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS,2020:12.
APA	Zhu, Yugui.,Zhang, Zhixin.,Reygondeau, Gabriel.,Chu, Jiansong.,Hong, Xuguang.,...&Cheung, William W. L..(2020).Projecting changes in the distribution and maximum catch potential of warm water fishes under climate change scenarios in the Yellow Sea.DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS,12.
MLA	Zhu, Yugui,et al."Projecting changes in the distribution and maximum catch potential of warm water fishes under climate change scenarios in the Yellow Sea".DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS (2020):12.

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