Modelling the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of ichthyoplankton in the Yangtze Estuary, China

doi:10.1111/ddi.13002

	Modelling the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of ichthyoplankton in the Yangtze Estuary, China
	Zhang, Zhixin 4; Mammola, Stefano 5,6; Xian, Weiwei 1,2,3; Zhang, Hui1,2,3
	2020
发表期刊	DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS
ISSN	1366-9516
卷号	26 期号:1 页码:126-137
通讯作者	Xian, Weiwei(wwxian@qdio.ac.cn) ; Zhang, Hui(zhanghui@qdio.ac.cn)
摘要	Aim Species distribution models (SDMs) are an effective tool to explore the potential distribution of terrestrial, freshwater and marine organisms; however, SDMs have been seldom used to model ichthyoplankton distributions, and thus, our understanding of how larval stages of fishes will respond to climate change is still limited. Here, we developed SDMs to explore potential impacts of climate change on habitat suitability of ichthyoplankton. Location Yangtze Estuary, China. Methods Using long-term ichthyoplankton survey data and a large set of marine predictor variables, we developed ensemble SDMs for five abundant ichthyoplankton species in the Yangtze Estuary (Coilia mystus, Hypoatherina valenciennei, Larimichthys polyactis, Salanx ariakensis and Chelidonichthys spinosus). Then, we projected their habitat suitability under present and future climate conditions. Results The ensemble SDMs had good predictive performance and were successful in estimating the known distributions of the five species. Model projections highlighted two contrasting patterns of response to future climates: while C. mystus will likely expand its range, the ranges of the other four species will likely contract and shift northward. Main conclusions According to our SDM projections, the five ichthyoplankton species that we tested in the Yangtze Estuary are likely to respond differently to future climate changes. These projected different responses seemingly reflect the differential functional attributes and life-history strategies of these species. To the extent that climate change emerges as a critical driver of the future distribution of these species, our findings provide an important roadmap for designing future conservation strategies for ichthyoplankton in this region.
关键词	climate change responses distribution range shifts ensemble forecasting fish larvae habitat suitability species distribution modelling
DOI	10.1111/ddi.13002
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
资助项目	National Natural Science Foundation of China[41976094] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[31872568] ; Key Deployment Program of Center for Ocean Mega-Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences ; International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences[CAS-JSPS-GJHZ1885] ; Youth Talent Support Program of the Laboratory for Marine Ecology and Environmental Science, Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (Qingdao)[LMEES-YTSP-2018-01-12]
WOS研究方向	Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
WOS类目	Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology
WOS记录号	WOS:000493701400001
出版者	WILEY
引用统计	被引频次：24[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/164929
专题	海洋生态与环境科学重点实验室
通讯作者	Xian, Weiwei; Zhang, Hui
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, CAS Key Lab Marine Ecol & Environm Sci, Qingdao 266071, Shandong, Peoples R China 2.Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol, Lab Marine Ecol & Environm Sci, Qingdao, Shandong, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Ctr Ocean Megasci, Qingdao, Shandong, Peoples R China 4.Tokyo Univ Marine Sci & Technol, Grad Sch Marine Sci & Technol, Minato Ku, Tokyo, Japan 5.Univ Turin, Dept Life Sci & Syst Biol, Turin, Italy 6.Univ Helsinki, LIBRe Lab Integrat Biodivers Res, Finnish Museum Nat Hist, Helsinki, Finland
通讯作者单位	中国科学院海洋研究所; 中国科学院海洋大科学研究中心
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Zhixin,Mammola, Stefano,Xian, Weiwei,et al. Modelling the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of ichthyoplankton in the Yangtze Estuary, China[J]. DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS,2020,26(1):126-137.
APA	Zhang, Zhixin,Mammola, Stefano,Xian, Weiwei,&Zhang, Hui.(2020).Modelling the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of ichthyoplankton in the Yangtze Estuary, China.DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS,26(1),126-137.
MLA	Zhang, Zhixin,et al."Modelling the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of ichthyoplankton in the Yangtze Estuary, China".DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS 26.1(2020):126-137.

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