The Impact of Assimilating Dropwindsonde Data Deployed at Different Sites on Typhoon Track Forecasts

doi:10.1175/MWR-D-12-00142.1

IOCAS-IR > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	The Impact of Assimilating Dropwindsonde Data Deployed at Different Sites on Typhoon Track Forecasts
	Chen, Boyu 1; Mu, Mu 2; Qin Xiaohao 3; Qin, XH
	2013-08-01
发表期刊	MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW
ISSN	0027-0644
卷号	141 期号:8 页码:2669-2682
文章类型	Article
摘要	This study investigates the impacts on typhoon track forecasting by the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) and its three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system of assimilating dropwindsonde observational data acquired from different sites. All of the sonde data were obtained between 2004 and 2009 in the typhoon surveillance program Dropwindsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region (DOTSTAR). Experiments were conducted to test the model's response to five scenarios involving differing dropwindsonde data inputs: 1) no dropwindsonde data, 2) all available dropwindsonde data, 3) data gathered in sensitive regions identified by the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) approach, 4) data gathered in sensitive regions identified by the first singular vector (FSV) approach, and 5) several sondes selected at random. The results show that using dropwindsonde data based on CNOP sensitivity can lead to improvements in typhoon track forecasting similar to, and occasionally better than, those achieved by assimilating all of the available data. Both approaches offered greater benefits than the other three alternatives averagely. It is proposed that CNOP provides a suitable approach to determining sensitive regions during adaptive observation of typhoons. Similar results may be obtained if the sensitivity products developed using MM5 are employed in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), suggesting that it is applicable to utilize sensitivity produced by MM5 in WRF.; This study investigates the impacts on typhoon track forecasting by the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5) and its three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system of assimilating dropwindsonde observational data acquired from different sites. All of the sonde data were obtained between 2004 and 2009 in the typhoon surveillance program Dropwindsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near the Taiwan Region (DOTSTAR). Experiments were conducted to test the model's response to five scenarios involving differing dropwindsonde data inputs: 1) no dropwindsonde data, 2) all available dropwindsonde data, 3) data gathered in sensitive regions identified by the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) approach, 4) data gathered in sensitive regions identified by the first singular vector (FSV) approach, and 5) several sondes selected at random. The results show that using dropwindsonde data based on CNOP sensitivity can lead to improvements in typhoon track forecasting similar to, and occasionally better than, those achieved by assimilating all of the available data. Both approaches offered greater benefits than the other three alternatives averagely. It is proposed that CNOP provides a suitable approach to determining sensitive regions during adaptive observation of typhoons. Similar results may be obtained if the sensitivity products developed using MM5 are employed in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF), suggesting that it is applicable to utilize sensitivity produced by MM5 in WRF.
关键词	Numerical Weather Prediction Forecasting
学科领域	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
DOI	10.1175/MWR-D-12-00142.1
URL	查看原文
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号	WOS:000322225200006
WOS关键词	NONLINEAR OPTIMAL PERTURBATIONS ; TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTS ; EL-NINO EVENTS ; TARGETED OBSERVATIONS ; SENSITIVE AREAS ; THERMOHALINE CIRCULATION ; SINGULAR VECTORS ; MESOSCALE MODEL ; CNOP METHOD ; PREDICTION
WOS标题词	Science & Technology ; Physical Sciences
引用统计	被引频次：13[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/16439
专题	海洋环流与波动重点实验室
通讯作者	Qin, XH
作者单位	1.China Meteorol Adm, Natl Meteorol Ctr, Weather Forecasting Off, Beijing, Peoples R China 2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Wave, Qingdao, Peoples R China 3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LASG, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chen, Boyu,Mu, Mu,Qin Xiaohao,et al. The Impact of Assimilating Dropwindsonde Data Deployed at Different Sites on Typhoon Track Forecasts[J]. MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW,2013,141(8):2669-2682.
APA	Chen, Boyu,Mu, Mu,Qin Xiaohao,&Qin, XH.(2013).The Impact of Assimilating Dropwindsonde Data Deployed at Different Sites on Typhoon Track Forecasts.MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW,141(8),2669-2682.
MLA	Chen, Boyu,et al."The Impact of Assimilating Dropwindsonde Data Deployed at Different Sites on Typhoon Track Forecasts".MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW 141.8(2013):2669-2682.

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