Institutional Repository of Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Wave Studies, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
| An improved simulation of the 2015 El Nio event by optimally correcting the initial conditions and model parameters in an intermediate coupled model | |
Zhang, Rong-Hua1,2,3 ; Tao, Ling-Jiang1,3; Gao, Chuan1,2
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| 2018-07-01 | |
| 发表期刊 | CLIMATE DYNAMICS
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| ISSN | 0930-7575 |
| 卷号 | 51期号:1-2页码:269-282 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, Rong-Hua(rzhang@qdio.ac.cn) |
| 摘要 | Large uncertainties exist in real-time predictions of the 2015 El Nio event, which have systematic intensity biases that are strongly model-dependent. It is critically important to characterize those model biases so they can be reduced appropriately. In this study, the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP)-based approach was applied to an intermediate coupled model (ICM) equipped with a four-dimensional variational data assimilation technique. The CNOP-based approach was used to quantify prediction errors that can be attributed to initial conditions (ICs) and model parameters (MPs). Two key MPs were considered in the ICM: one represents the intensity of the thermocline effect, and the other represents the relative coupling intensity between the ocean and atmosphere. Two experiments were performed to illustrate the effects of error corrections, one with a standard simulation and another with an optimized simulation in which errors in the ICs and MPs derived from the CNOP-based approach were optimally corrected. The results indicate that simulations of the 2015 El Nio event can be effectively improved by using CNOP-derived error correcting. In particular, the El Nio intensity in late 2015 was adequately captured when simulations were started from early 2015. Quantitatively, the Nio3.4 SST index simulated in Dec. 2015 increased to 2.8 A degrees C in the optimized simulation, compared with only 1.5 A degrees C in the standard simulation. The feasibility and effectiveness of using the CNOP-based technique to improve ENSO simulations are demonstrated in the context of the 2015 El Nio event. The limitations and further applications are also discussed. |
| 关键词 | The 2015 El Nino event ICM The CNOP-based approach Optimal bias corrections to ICs and MPs |
| DOI | 10.1007/s00382-017-3919-z |
| 收录类别 | SCI |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 资助项目 | National Natural Science Foundation of China[41690122] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41690120] ; AoShan Talents Program - Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science Technology[2015ASTP] ; Chinese Academy of Sciences Strategic Priority Project ; Western Pacific Ocean System[XDA11010105] ; Western Pacific Ocean System[XDA11020306] ; Taishan Scholarship ; Recruitment Program of Global Experts ; Qingdao Innovative Program[13-CX-22] ; Shandong Independent Innovation Major Program for key technology[2014GJJS0101] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41690122] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41690120] ; AoShan Talents Program - Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science Technology[2015ASTP] ; Chinese Academy of Sciences Strategic Priority Project ; Western Pacific Ocean System[XDA11010105] ; Western Pacific Ocean System[XDA11020306] ; Taishan Scholarship ; Recruitment Program of Global Experts ; Qingdao Innovative Program[13-CX-22] ; Shandong Independent Innovation Major Program for key technology[2014GJJS0101] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41690122] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41690120] ; AoShan Talents Program - Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science Technology[2015ASTP] ; Chinese Academy of Sciences Strategic Priority Project ; Western Pacific Ocean System[XDA11010105] ; Western Pacific Ocean System[XDA11020306] ; Taishan Scholarship ; Recruitment Program of Global Experts ; Qingdao Innovative Program[13-CX-22] ; Shandong Independent Innovation Major Program for key technology[2014GJJS0101] |
| WOS研究方向 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS类目 | Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences |
| WOS记录号 | WOS:000435522000016 |
| 出版者 | SPRINGER |
| 引用统计 | |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/159494 |
| 专题 | 海洋环流与波动重点实验室 |
| 通讯作者 | Zhang, Rong-Hua |
| 作者单位 | 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China 2.Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol, Qingdao 266237, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China |
| 第一作者单位 | 海洋环流与波动重点实验室 |
| 通讯作者单位 | 海洋环流与波动重点实验室 |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Zhang, Rong-Hua,Tao, Ling-Jiang,Gao, Chuan. An improved simulation of the 2015 El Nio event by optimally correcting the initial conditions and model parameters in an intermediate coupled model[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2018,51(1-2):269-282. |
| APA | Zhang, Rong-Hua,Tao, Ling-Jiang,&Gao, Chuan.(2018).An improved simulation of the 2015 El Nio event by optimally correcting the initial conditions and model parameters in an intermediate coupled model.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,51(1-2),269-282. |
| MLA | Zhang, Rong-Hua,et al."An improved simulation of the 2015 El Nio event by optimally correcting the initial conditions and model parameters in an intermediate coupled model".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 51.1-2(2018):269-282. |
| 条目包含的文件 | ||||||
| 文件名称/大小 | 文献类型 | 版本类型 | 开放类型 | 使用许可 | ||
| An improved simulati（3230KB） | 期刊论文 | 出版稿 | 限制开放 | CC BY-NC-SA | 浏览 | |
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