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The Indian Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations in CFSv2 Forecasts: Biases and Importance of Improving Air-Sea Interaction Processes
Li, Yuanlong1,2,3; Han, Weiqing2; Wang, Wanqiu4; Zhang, Lei2; Ravichandran, M.5
2018-07-01
发表期刊JOURNAL OF CLIMATE
ISSN0894-8755
卷号31期号:14页码:5351-5370
通讯作者Li, Yuanlong(yuanlong.li@colorado.edu)
摘要Northward-propagating Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISOs) are a major origin of the active-break spells of the monsoon rainfall. Forecast results for 28 active and 27 break spells from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), during 1999-2010 are analyzed. CFSv2 forecasts are able to represent the propagation of MISOs from the equator to central India, showing improvements in many aspects compared to its previous version. Systematic biases for MISOs, however, still exist, exhibiting apparently weaker amplitude and slower northward propagation compared to observations. The eastern Arabian Sea (EAS)-western Bay of Bengal (WBB) region (EAS-WBB region; 12 degrees-20 degrees N, 65 degrees-85 degrees E) is found to be critical for the MISO prediction. In that region, the forecast and observed MISO trajectories begin to bifurcate from each other, and forecast errors grow rapidly. Further diagnosis reveals that local air-sea interaction in that region is severely underrepresented in CFSv2. Sea surface temperature (SST) response to surface heat flux forcing and convection response to SST forcing are both too weak, leading to the underestimated MISO amplitude. The relationship between precipitation and SST in CFSv2 is much more chaotic than in observation. The misrepresentation of air-sea coupling results in longer MISO periods in the EAS-WBB region, manifesting as slower propagation and delayed arrival of MISOs in central India. Refining the air-sea coupling processes is crucial for improving the CFSv2 forecast. This includes taking into account the ocean skin layer, better resolving the diurnal cycle, and improving the ocean model physics.
关键词Monsoons Sea surface temperature Air-sea interaction Forecasting Intraseasonal variability
DOI10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0623.1
收录类别SCI
语种英语
资助项目Earth System Science Organization, Ministry of Earth Sciences, government of India[SSC-03-002] ; Earth System Science Organization, Ministry of Earth Sciences, government of India[MM/SERP/CNRS/2013/INT-10/002] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[41776001] ; NSF[OCE-1658132] ; Earth System Science Organization, Ministry of Earth Sciences, government of India[SSC-03-002] ; Earth System Science Organization, Ministry of Earth Sciences, government of India[MM/SERP/CNRS/2013/INT-10/002] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC)[41776001] ; NSF[OCE-1658132]
WOS研究方向Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS类目Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS记录号WOS:000435075300002
出版者AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC
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被引频次:23[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/159390
专题海洋环流与波动重点实验室
通讯作者Li, Yuanlong
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao, Peoples R China
2.Univ Colorado, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Boulder, CO 80309 USA
3.Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol, Funct Lab Ocean Dynam & Climate, Qingdao, Peoples R China
4.NOAA, Climate Predict Ctr, NWS, NCEP, College Pk, MD USA
5.Natl Ctr Antarctic & Ocean Res, Vasco De Gama, India
第一作者单位海洋环流与波动重点实验室
通讯作者单位海洋环流与波动重点实验室
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Li, Yuanlong,Han, Weiqing,Wang, Wanqiu,et al. The Indian Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations in CFSv2 Forecasts: Biases and Importance of Improving Air-Sea Interaction Processes[J]. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,2018,31(14):5351-5370.
APA Li, Yuanlong,Han, Weiqing,Wang, Wanqiu,Zhang, Lei,&Ravichandran, M..(2018).The Indian Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations in CFSv2 Forecasts: Biases and Importance of Improving Air-Sea Interaction Processes.JOURNAL OF CLIMATE,31(14),5351-5370.
MLA Li, Yuanlong,et al."The Indian Summer Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations in CFSv2 Forecasts: Biases and Importance of Improving Air-Sea Interaction Processes".JOURNAL OF CLIMATE 31.14(2018):5351-5370.
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