IOCAS-IR
Stabilised frequency of extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole under 1.5 degrees C warming
Cai, Wenju1,2,3; Wang, Guojian1,2,3; Gan, Bolan1,2; Wu, Lixin1,2; Santoso, Agus3,4; Lin, Xiaopei1,2; Chen, Zhaohui1,2; Jia, Fan5; Yamagata, Toshio6
2018-04-12
Source PublicationNATURE COMMUNICATIONS
ISSN2041-1723
Volume9Pages:8
Corresponding AuthorCai, Wenju(wenju.cai@csiro.au) ; Wu, Lixin(lxwu@ouc.edu.cn)
AbstractExtreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole (pIOD) affects weather, agriculture, ecosystems, and public health worldwide, particularly when exacerbated by an extreme El Nino. The Paris Agreement aims to limit warming below 2 degrees C and ideally below 1.5 degrees C in global mean temperature (GMT), but how extreme pIOD will respond to this target is unclear. Here we show that the frequency increases linearly as the warming proceeds, and doubles at 1.5 degrees C warming from the pre-industrial level (statistically significant above the 90% confidence level), underscored by a strong intermodel agreement with 11 out of 13 models producing an increase. However, in sharp contrast to a continuous increase in extreme El Nino frequency long after GMT stabilisation, the extreme pIOD frequency peaks as the GMT stabilises. The contrasting response corresponds to a 50% reduction in frequency of an extreme El Nino preceded by an extreme pIOD from that projected under a business-as-usual scenario.
DOI10.1038/s41467-018-03789-6
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectCentre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research ; Earth Science and Climate Change Hub of the Australian Government's National Environmental Science Programme ; CSIRO Office of Chief Executive Science Leader award ; Australian Research Council
WOS Research AreaScience & Technology - Other Topics
WOS SubjectMultidisciplinary Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000429794300012
PublisherNATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/158469
Collection中国科学院海洋研究所
Corresponding AuthorCai, Wenju; Wu, Lixin
Affiliation1.Ocean Univ China, Phys Oceanog Lab CIMST, Yushan Rd, Qingdao 266003, Peoples R China
2.Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol, Yushan Rd, Qingdao 266003, Peoples R China
3.CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, CSHOR, Hobart, Tas 7004, Australia
4.Univ New South Wales, Ctr Excellence Climate Syst Sci, ARC Ctr Excellence Climate Syst Sci, Level 4 Mathews Bldg, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia
5.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China
6.JAMSTEC, Applicat Lab, Kanazawa Ku, 3173-25 Showa Machi, Yokohama, Kanagawa 2360001, Japan
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Cai, Wenju,Wang, Guojian,Gan, Bolan,et al. Stabilised frequency of extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole under 1.5 degrees C warming[J]. NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,2018,9:8.
APA Cai, Wenju.,Wang, Guojian.,Gan, Bolan.,Wu, Lixin.,Santoso, Agus.,...&Yamagata, Toshio.(2018).Stabilised frequency of extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole under 1.5 degrees C warming.NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,9,8.
MLA Cai, Wenju,et al."Stabilised frequency of extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole under 1.5 degrees C warming".NATURE COMMUNICATIONS 9(2018):8.
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