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Prediction of the South China Sea Dipole Using SSA-MEM
Xia, Qiong1,2,4; He, Yijun2; Dong, Changming2,3; Wei, Enbo1
Source PublicationATMOSPHERE-OCEAN
Corresponding AuthorHe, Yijun( ; Dong, Changming(
AbstractA dipole structure appears in the sea surface height off the central coast of Vietnam during boreal summer in the South China Sea. This dipole, which possesses a chlorophyll signature associated with higher phytoplankton concentrations arising from nutrient upwelling, is important for the productivity of local fisheries. Multi-satellite sea level anomalies are used to investigate the life cycle of the dipole structure. By applying empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, the third EOF mode (EOF 3) is found to represent the major variations of the dipole structure. By removing the temporal noise of EOF 3, a South China Sea dipole index is defined. This index captures the life cycle of the dipole including its generation, mature strength, and final termination. Both one-dimensional and two-dimensional forecasts are generated using a statistical forecasting method that combines singular-spectrum analysis and the maximum entropy method. The appearance of the dipole structure can be predicted with an accuracy of 78% at one-month lead times and an accuracy of 61% at one-year lead times.
KeywordSouth China Sea sea level dipole structure SSA-MEM statistical prediction
Indexed BySCI
Funding ProjectNational Key Research Program of China[2017YFA0604100] ; Natural Science Foundation of China[41476022] ; National Programme on Global Change and Air-Sea Interaction[GASI-IPOVAI-05]
WOS Research AreaMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Oceanography
WOS SubjectMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Oceanography
WOS IDWOS:000449550700005
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Document Type期刊论文
Corresponding AuthorHe, Yijun; Dong, Changming
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China
2.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Sch Marine Sci, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China
3.Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Los Angeles, CA 91214 USA
4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
First Author AffilicationKey Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Wave Studies, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Xia, Qiong,He, Yijun,Dong, Changming,et al. Prediction of the South China Sea Dipole Using SSA-MEM[J]. ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN,2018,56(4):240-253.
APA Xia, Qiong,He, Yijun,Dong, Changming,&Wei, Enbo.(2018).Prediction of the South China Sea Dipole Using SSA-MEM.ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN,56(4),240-253.
MLA Xia, Qiong,et al."Prediction of the South China Sea Dipole Using SSA-MEM".ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN 56.4(2018):240-253.
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