Prediction of the South China Sea Dipole Using SSA-MEM

doi:10.1080/07055900.2017.1406331

IOCAS-IR > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	Prediction of the South China Sea Dipole Using SSA-MEM
	Xia, Qiong 1,2,4; He, Yijun 2; Dong, Changming 2,3; Wei, Enbo 1
	2018
发表期刊	ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN
ISSN	0705-5900
卷号	56 期号:4 页码:240-253
通讯作者	He, Yijun(yjhe@nuist.edu.cn) ; Dong, Changming(cdong@atmos.ucla.edu)
摘要	A dipole structure appears in the sea surface height off the central coast of Vietnam during boreal summer in the South China Sea. This dipole, which possesses a chlorophyll signature associated with higher phytoplankton concentrations arising from nutrient upwelling, is important for the productivity of local fisheries. Multi-satellite sea level anomalies are used to investigate the life cycle of the dipole structure. By applying empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, the third EOF mode (EOF 3) is found to represent the major variations of the dipole structure. By removing the temporal noise of EOF 3, a South China Sea dipole index is defined. This index captures the life cycle of the dipole including its generation, mature strength, and final termination. Both one-dimensional and two-dimensional forecasts are generated using a statistical forecasting method that combines singular-spectrum analysis and the maximum entropy method. The appearance of the dipole structure can be predicted with an accuracy of 78% at one-month lead times and an accuracy of 61% at one-year lead times.
关键词	South China Sea sea level dipole structure SSA-MEM statistical prediction
DOI	10.1080/07055900.2017.1406331
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
资助项目	National Key Research Program of China[2017YFA0604100] ; Natural Science Foundation of China[41476022] ; National Programme on Global Change and Air-Sea Interaction[GASI-IPOVAI-05] ; National Key Research Program of China[2017YFA0604100] ; Natural Science Foundation of China[41476022] ; National Programme on Global Change and Air-Sea Interaction[GASI-IPOVAI-05]
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Oceanography
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences ; Oceanography
WOS记录号	WOS:000449550700005
出版者	CMOS-SCMO
引用统计
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/156352
专题	海洋环流与波动重点实验室
通讯作者	He, Yijun; Dong, Changming
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China 2.Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Sch Marine Sci, Nanjing 210044, Jiangsu, Peoples R China 3.Univ Calif Los Angeles, Dept Atmospher & Ocean Sci, Los Angeles, CA 91214 USA 4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
第一作者单位	海洋环流与波动重点实验室
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xia, Qiong,He, Yijun,Dong, Changming,et al. Prediction of the South China Sea Dipole Using SSA-MEM[J]. ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN,2018,56(4):240-253.
APA	Xia, Qiong,He, Yijun,Dong, Changming,&Wei, Enbo.(2018).Prediction of the South China Sea Dipole Using SSA-MEM.ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN,56(4),240-253.
MLA	Xia, Qiong,et al."Prediction of the South China Sea Dipole Using SSA-MEM".ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN 56.4(2018):240-253.

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