IOCAS-IR  > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室
Model parameter-related optimal perturbations and their contributions to El Nino prediction errors
Tao, Ling-Jiang1,2; Gao, Chuan1,3; Zhang, Rong-Hua1,2,3
2019-02-01
Source PublicationCLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN0930-7575
Volume52Issue:3-4Pages:1425-1441
Corresponding AuthorZhang, Rong-Hua(rzhang@qdio.ac.cn)
AbstractErrors in initial conditions and model parameters (MPs) are the main sources that limit the accuracy of ENSO predictions. In addition to exploring the initial error-induced prediction errors, model errors are equally important in determining prediction performance. In this paper, the MP-related optimal errors that can cause prominent error growth in ENSO predictions are investigated using an intermediate coupled model (ICM) and a conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) approach. Two MPs related to the Bjerknes feedback are considered in the CNOP analysis: one involves the SST-surface wind coupling (), and the other involves the thermocline effect on the SST (Te). The MP-related optimal perturbations (denoted as CNOP-P) are found uniformly positive and restrained in a small region: the component is mainly concentrated in the central equatorial Pacific, and the Te component is mainly located in the eastern cold tongue region. This kind of CNOP-P enhances the strength of the Bjerknes feedback and induces an El Nino- or La Nina-like error evolution, resulting in an El Nino-like systematic bias in this model. The CNOP-P is also found to play a role in the spring predictability barrier (SPB) for ENSO predictions. Evidently, such error growth is primarily attributed to MP errors in small areas based on the localized distribution of CNOP-P. Further sensitivity experiments firmly indicate that ENSO simulations are sensitive to the representation of SST-surface wind coupling in the central Pacific and tothe thermocline effect in the eastern Pacific in the ICM. These results provide guidance and theoretical support for the future improvement in numerical models to reduce the systematic bias and SPB phenomenon in ENSO predictions.
KeywordIntermediate coupled model CNOP approach Model parameters El Nino predictability
DOI10.1007/s00382-018-4202-7
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
Funding ProjectStrategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[XDA19060102] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41475101] ; National Natural Science Foundation of China[41690122 (41690120)] ; CAS Strategic Priority Project ; Western Pacific Ocean System[XDA11010105] ; Western Pacific Ocean System[XDA11020306] ; NSFC-Shandong Joint Fund for Marine Science Research Centers[U1406402] ; National Programme on Global Change and Air-Sea Interaction[GASI-IPOVAI-06] ; National Programme on Global Change and Air-Sea Interaction[GASI-IPOVAI-01-01] ; Taishan Scholarship
WOS Research AreaMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS SubjectMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS IDWOS:000460902200008
PublisherSPRINGER
Citation statistics
Cited Times:1[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/155319
Collection海洋环流与波动重点实验室
Corresponding AuthorZhang, Rong-Hua
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 10029, Peoples R China
3.Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol, Qingdao 266237, Peoples R China
First Author AffilicationKey Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Wave Studies, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Corresponding Author AffilicationKey Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Wave Studies, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Tao, Ling-Jiang,Gao, Chuan,Zhang, Rong-Hua. Model parameter-related optimal perturbations and their contributions to El Nino prediction errors[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2019,52(3-4):1425-1441.
APA Tao, Ling-Jiang,Gao, Chuan,&Zhang, Rong-Hua.(2019).Model parameter-related optimal perturbations and their contributions to El Nino prediction errors.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,52(3-4),1425-1441.
MLA Tao, Ling-Jiang,et al."Model parameter-related optimal perturbations and their contributions to El Nino prediction errors".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 52.3-4(2019):1425-1441.
Files in This Item:
There are no files associated with this item.
Related Services
Recommend this item
Bookmark
Usage statistics
Export to Endnote
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Tao, Ling-Jiang]'s Articles
[Gao, Chuan]'s Articles
[Zhang, Rong-Hua]'s Articles
Baidu academic
Similar articles in Baidu academic
[Tao, Ling-Jiang]'s Articles
[Gao, Chuan]'s Articles
[Zhang, Rong-Hua]'s Articles
Bing Scholar
Similar articles in Bing Scholar
[Tao, Ling-Jiang]'s Articles
[Gao, Chuan]'s Articles
[Zhang, Rong-Hua]'s Articles
Terms of Use
No data!
Social Bookmark/Share
All comments (0)
No comment.
 

Items in the repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.