胶州湾生态系统数学模型与计算机模拟及优化管理对策

IOCAS-IR > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	胶州湾生态系统数学模型与计算机模拟及优化管理对策
	黄勃
学位类型	博士
	1993
学位授予单位	中国科学院海洋研究所
学位授予地点	中国科学院海洋研究所
学位专业	海洋生物
关键词	生态系统数学模型灰色系统渔业资源环境保护优化管理胶州湾
摘要	六十年代产生的系统生态学，在生态系统研究中使得数学模型至今都是一个必不可少的有效工具，建立数学模型已成为生态学中研究的热点。文章运用概率统计、时序分析手段及灰色系统理论，对胶州湾生态系统调查的历史资料进行初步分析，取得如下成果。1. 建立了非生物环境因子的八个静态统计模型，并分析了它们之间的相关关系，从定性、定量的角度对胶州湾非生物环境因子相互关系进行了研究，并结合实际情况对数学模型进行了解释。2. 根据历史资料及前人研究成果，把胶州湾生态系统划分为：浮游动物、浮游动物食性鱼类、植食性鱼类、底栖生物、底栖生物食性鱼类、肉食性鱼类六个子系统，并把有机质及浮游植物（初级生产力）作为系统的输入，运用灰关联度方法对子系统与生物及非生物环境因子的关系进行定量分析，排列出影响各子系统生物量变化的非生物环境因素的主次顺序，建立了相应的GM（1，N）模型，并对模型进行了残差检验，模型能较好的反映实际情况。预测了各子系统的发展特性，并结合实际情况提出了各类渔业资源管理的具体指标值，对优化子系统提供了具体参数。3. 根据胶州湾的实际情况，提出了新的数学模型 - 差分摆动模型及其建立方法。模型的意义在于可量化任意几个有关因子的数量关系，并对未能考虑到的因子，甚至一直未能被人们认识到的所有因子对这种生物作用的信息量进行量化，把生态系统中生物与非生物环境因子相互作用通过方程联系起来，并在论文中得到了验证。4. 根据灰色系统分析方法，对胶州湾生态系统进行了动态分析，建立了生态系统的量化动态模型，利用劳斯判断准则及根平面法，分析了系统的发展稳定状态，发现胶州湾生态系统周年内处于不稳定的发展状态。总之，论文运用各种数学手段从系统的角度来分析生态系统中各环境因子之间关系，并用数学模型把这种关系定量地表示出来，利用胶州湾生态系统现有资料，对胶州湾生态系统从系统的角度进行综合分析，为科学管理与合理开发胶州湾生物资源、优化胶州湾生态系统提供了意义的参考意见。
其他摘要	Grey system theory was created in 1982 by professor Deng Julong, a control theory expert. Grey system is defined as an abstract system characted as no physical protoplast, no clear operation mechanisms and the model regarded as a representation for a certain abstract system is only an isomorphism with the original system by a given criterion. Grey system theory is different from tranditinal system theory in ideology and equation form, Classical system theory describes ecosystem mechanically in Aristotelian positivist point of view. Grey system theory, however, understands ecosystem with grey models, which are groups of abnomal difference equations with variations in structure and time rather than the normal difference equations, and are of the approximated exponential Law rather than the normal exponential law. Above all, grey system theory only needs less number (N> 4) to model. This has the advantage of statistics, fussy mathmatics, which needs enough large number (sample)to model. In terms of general ecosystem protoplast and the analysis of the conents of 2607 stomachs of 53 main species of fisher, the Jianzhou Bay (along the south Yellow Sea coast of China) ecosystem is divided into 6 sorts of subsystems: 1. zooplankton. 2. benthos. 3. detritus feeders. 4. zooplankton feeders. 5. zoobenthos feeders. 6. nekton feeders. Abiotic environmental factors in ecosstem are considered, such as: 1. geological factors: fault activity, sedimentary types; 2. structure and variation of hydrographical properties: temperature, salinity, water colour and transparency, tidal currents; 3. seawater chemistry: dissolved oxygen, PH-value, total inorganic nitrogen and P, dissolved and particulata organic carbon (DOC, POC), particulata amino acids (PAA). The relations among abiotic environmental factors are descripted by equations of statistics. The relations among subsystems are modelled by GM (1, N) model. The relations among subsustems and abiotic environmental factors are modelled by new models created by Huang Bo and Liu Ruiyu (J. Y. Liu) on basis of grey system theory and Fourier trasform method. As one subsystem, abiotic and biotic factors affect its development. The relations among the various environmental factors are masted by use of relational space method for grey system which distingushs coefficient of statistics. The ecosystem characteristics of stability、development and regulation are analyzed on basis of GM (1, N) models by grey control theory. Methods of programming and managing the ecosystem are brought out. The amount of every living resource in the ecosystem is forecasted and programmed.
页数	49
语种	中文
文献类型	学位论文
条目标识符	http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/1523
专题	海洋环流与波动重点实验室
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	黄勃. 胶州湾生态系统数学模型与计算机模拟及优化管理对策[D]. 中国科学院海洋研究所. 中国科学院海洋研究所,1993.

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