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The predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motions: Retrospect and prospects
Mu Mu1,2; Duan WanSuo3,4; Tang YouMin5
2017-11-01
发表期刊SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES
卷号60期号:11页码:2001-2012
文章类型Review
摘要This paper reviews the historic understanding of the predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motions, and interprets it in a general framework. On this basis, the existing challenges and unsolved problems in the study of the intrinsic predictability limit (IPL) of weather and climate events of different spatio-temporal scales are summarized. Emphasis is also placed on the structure of the initial error and model parameter errors as well as the associated targeting observation issue. Finally, the predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motion in the ensemble-probabilistic methods widely used in current operational forecasts are discussed. The necessity of considering IPLs in the framework of stochastic dynamic systems is also addressed.
关键词Atmosphere-ocean Predictability Intrinsic Predictability Limit Ensemble Forecast
DOI10.1007/s11430-016-9101-x
收录类别SCI
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000413691300006
引用统计
被引频次:2[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
版本出版稿
条目标识符http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/143043
专题海洋环流与波动重点实验室
作者单位1.Fudan Univ, Inst Atmospher Sci, Shanghai 200433, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China
4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Earth Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
5.State Ocean Adm, Inst Oceanog 2, Hangzhou 310012, Zhejiang, Peoples R China
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Mu Mu,Duan WanSuo,Tang YouMin. The predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motions: Retrospect and prospects[J]. SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES,2017,60(11):2001-2012.
APA Mu Mu,Duan WanSuo,&Tang YouMin.(2017).The predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motions: Retrospect and prospects.SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES,60(11),2001-2012.
MLA Mu Mu,et al."The predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motions: Retrospect and prospects".SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES 60.11(2017):2001-2012.
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