IOCAS-IR  > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室
The predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motions: Retrospect and prospects
Mu Mu1,2; Duan WanSuo3,4; Tang YouMin5
2017-11-01
Source PublicationSCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES
Volume60Issue:11Pages:2001-2012
SubtypeReview
AbstractThis paper reviews the historic understanding of the predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motions, and interprets it in a general framework. On this basis, the existing challenges and unsolved problems in the study of the intrinsic predictability limit (IPL) of weather and climate events of different spatio-temporal scales are summarized. Emphasis is also placed on the structure of the initial error and model parameter errors as well as the associated targeting observation issue. Finally, the predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motion in the ensemble-probabilistic methods widely used in current operational forecasts are discussed. The necessity of considering IPLs in the framework of stochastic dynamic systems is also addressed.
KeywordAtmosphere-ocean Predictability Intrinsic Predictability Limit Ensemble Forecast
DOI10.1007/s11430-016-9101-x
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
WOS IDWOS:000413691300006
Citation statistics
Cited Times:3[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Version出版稿
Identifierhttp://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/143043
Collection海洋环流与波动重点实验室
Affiliation1.Fudan Univ, Inst Atmospher Sci, Shanghai 200433, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China
3.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China
4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Coll Earth Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
5.State Ocean Adm, Inst Oceanog 2, Hangzhou 310012, Zhejiang, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Mu Mu,Duan WanSuo,Tang YouMin. The predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motions: Retrospect and prospects[J]. SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES,2017,60(11):2001-2012.
APA Mu Mu,Duan WanSuo,&Tang YouMin.(2017).The predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motions: Retrospect and prospects.SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES,60(11),2001-2012.
MLA Mu Mu,et al."The predictability of atmospheric and oceanic motions: Retrospect and prospects".SCIENCE CHINA-EARTH SCIENCES 60.11(2017):2001-2012.
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