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Initial error-induced optimal perturbations in ENSO predictions, as derived from an intermediate coupled model
Tao, Ling-Jiang1,2; Zhang, Rong-Hua1,2,3; Gao, Chuan1,2
2017-06-01
Source PublicationADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Volume34Issue:6Pages:791-803
SubtypeArticle
AbstractThe initial errors constitute one of the main limiting factors in the ability to predict the El Nio-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in ocean-atmosphere coupled models. The conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) approach was employed to study the largest initial error growth in the El Nio predictions of an intermediate coupled model (ICM). The optimal initial errors (as represented by CNOPs) in sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) and sea level anomalies (SLAs) were obtained with seasonal variation. The CNOP-induced perturbations, which tend to evolve into the La Nia mode, were found to have the same dynamics as ENSO itself. This indicates that, if CNOP-type errors are present in the initial conditions used to make a prediction of El NiEeno, the El Nio event tends to be under-predicted. In particular, compared with other seasonal CNOPs, the CNOPs in winter can induce the largest error growth, which gives rise to an ENSO amplitude that is hardly ever predicted accurately. Additionally, it was found that the CNOP-induced perturbations exhibit a strong spring predictability barrier (SPB) phenomenon for ENSO prediction. These results offer a way to enhance ICM prediction skill and, particularly, weaken the SPB phenomenon by filtering the CNOP-type errors in the initial state. The characteristic distributions of the CNOPs derived from the ICM also provide useful information for targeted observations through data assimilation. Given the fact that the derived CNOPs are season-dependent, it is suggested that seasonally varying targeted observations should be implemented to accurately predict ENSO events.
KeywordEl Nino Predictability Initial Errors Intermediate Coupled Model Spring Predictability Barrier
DOI10.1007/s00376-017-6266-4
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
WOS IDWOS:000400378100009
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Cited Times:8[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Version出版稿
Identifierhttp://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/137062
Collection海洋环流与波动重点实验室
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China
2.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 10029, Peoples R China
3.Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol, Lab Ocean & Climate Dynam, Qingdao 266237, Peoples R China
First Author AffilicationKey Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Wave Studies, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
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GB/T 7714
Tao, Ling-Jiang,Zhang, Rong-Hua,Gao, Chuan. Initial error-induced optimal perturbations in ENSO predictions, as derived from an intermediate coupled model[J]. ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,2017,34(6):791-803.
APA Tao, Ling-Jiang,Zhang, Rong-Hua,&Gao, Chuan.(2017).Initial error-induced optimal perturbations in ENSO predictions, as derived from an intermediate coupled model.ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES,34(6),791-803.
MLA Tao, Ling-Jiang,et al."Initial error-induced optimal perturbations in ENSO predictions, as derived from an intermediate coupled model".ADVANCES IN ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 34.6(2017):791-803.
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