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Surface Current in "Hotspot" Serves as a New and Effective Precursor for El Nino Prediction
Wang, Jianing1,2; Lu, Youyu3; Wang, Fan1,2,4; Zhang, Rong-Hua1,2,4
2017-03-13
发表期刊SCIENTIFIC REPORTS
卷号7
文章类型Article
摘要The El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most prominent sources of inter-annual climate variability. Related to the seasonal phase-locking, ENSO's prediction across the low-persistence barrier in the boreal spring remains a challenge. Here we identify regions where surface current variability influences the short-lead time predictions of the July Nino 3.4 index by applying a regression analysis. A highly influential region, related to the distribution of wind-stress curl and sea surface temperature, is located near the dateline and the southern edge of the South Equatorial Current. During El Nino years, a westward current anomaly in the identified high-influence region favours the accumulation of warm water in the western Pacific. The opposite occurs during La Nino years. This process is seen to serve as the "goal shot" for ENSO development, which provides an effective precursor for the prediction of the July Nino 3.4 index with a lead time of 2-4 months. The prediction skill based on surface current precursor beats that based on the warm water volume and persistence in the subsequent months after July. In particular, prediction based on surface current precursor shows skill in all years, while predictions based on other precursors show reduced skill after 2002.
DOI10.1038/s41598-017-00244-2
收录类别SCI
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000396869100014
引用统计
被引频次:1[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
版本出版稿
条目标识符http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/136757
专题海洋环流与波动重点实验室
实验海洋生物学重点实验室
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao, Peoples R China
2.Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol, Lab Ocean & Climate Dynam, Qingdao, Peoples R China
3.Fisheries & Oceans Canada, Bedford Inst Oceanog, Dartmouth, NS, Canada
4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
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Wang, Jianing,Lu, Youyu,Wang, Fan,et al. Surface Current in "Hotspot" Serves as a New and Effective Precursor for El Nino Prediction[J]. SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,2017,7.
APA Wang, Jianing,Lu, Youyu,Wang, Fan,&Zhang, Rong-Hua.(2017).Surface Current in "Hotspot" Serves as a New and Effective Precursor for El Nino Prediction.SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,7.
MLA Wang, Jianing,et al."Surface Current in "Hotspot" Serves as a New and Effective Precursor for El Nino Prediction".SCIENTIFIC REPORTS 7(2017).
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