IOCAS-IR  > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室
Surface Current in "Hotspot" Serves as a New and Effective Precursor for El Nino Prediction
Wang, Jianing1,2; Lu, Youyu3; Wang, Fan1,2,4; Zhang, Rong-Hua1,2,4
2017-03-13
Source PublicationSCIENTIFIC REPORTS
Volume7
SubtypeArticle
AbstractThe El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most prominent sources of inter-annual climate variability. Related to the seasonal phase-locking, ENSO's prediction across the low-persistence barrier in the boreal spring remains a challenge. Here we identify regions where surface current variability influences the short-lead time predictions of the July Nino 3.4 index by applying a regression analysis. A highly influential region, related to the distribution of wind-stress curl and sea surface temperature, is located near the dateline and the southern edge of the South Equatorial Current. During El Nino years, a westward current anomaly in the identified high-influence region favours the accumulation of warm water in the western Pacific. The opposite occurs during La Nino years. This process is seen to serve as the "goal shot" for ENSO development, which provides an effective precursor for the prediction of the July Nino 3.4 index with a lead time of 2-4 months. The prediction skill based on surface current precursor beats that based on the warm water volume and persistence in the subsequent months after July. In particular, prediction based on surface current precursor shows skill in all years, while predictions based on other precursors show reduced skill after 2002.
DOI10.1038/s41598-017-00244-2
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
WOS IDWOS:000396869100014
Citation statistics
Cited Times:1[WOS]   [WOS Record]     [Related Records in WOS]
Document Type期刊论文
Version出版稿
Identifierhttp://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/136757
Collection海洋环流与波动重点实验室
实验海洋生物学重点实验室
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao, Peoples R China
2.Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol, Lab Ocean & Climate Dynam, Qingdao, Peoples R China
3.Fisheries & Oceans Canada, Bedford Inst Oceanog, Dartmouth, NS, Canada
4.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
First Author AffilicationKey Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Wave Studies, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Wang, Jianing,Lu, Youyu,Wang, Fan,et al. Surface Current in "Hotspot" Serves as a New and Effective Precursor for El Nino Prediction[J]. SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,2017,7.
APA Wang, Jianing,Lu, Youyu,Wang, Fan,&Zhang, Rong-Hua.(2017).Surface Current in "Hotspot" Serves as a New and Effective Precursor for El Nino Prediction.SCIENTIFIC REPORTS,7.
MLA Wang, Jianing,et al."Surface Current in "Hotspot" Serves as a New and Effective Precursor for El Nino Prediction".SCIENTIFIC REPORTS 7(2017).
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