IOCAS-IR  > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室
Estimating observing locations for advancing beyond the winter predictability barrier of Indian Ocean dipole event predictions
Feng, Rong1; Duan, Wansuo1; Mu, Mu2
2017-02-01
Source PublicationCLIMATE DYNAMICS
Volume48Issue:3-4Pages:1173-1185
SubtypeArticle
AbstractIn this paper, we explored potential observing locations (i.e., the sensitive areas) of positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events to advance beyond the winter predictability barrier (WPB) using the geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory climate model version 2p1 (GFDL CM2p1). The sensitivity analysis is conducted through perfect model predictability experiments, in which the model is assumed to be perfect and so any prediction errors are caused by initial errors. The results show that the initial errors with an east-west dipole pattern are more likely to result in a significant WPB than spatially correlated noises; the areas where the large values of the dipole pattern initial errors are located have great effects on prediction uncertainties in winter and provide useful information regarding the sensitive areas. Further, the prediction uncertainties in winter are more sensitive to the initial errors in the subsurface large value areas than to those in the surface large value areas. The results indicate that the subsurface large value areas are sensitive areas for advancing beyond the WPB of IOD predictions and if we carry out intensive observations across these areas, the prediction errors in winter may be largely reduced. This will lead to large improvements in the skill of wintertime IOD event forecasts.
KeywordIndian Ocean Dipole Sensitive Areas Winter Predictability Barrier Initial Errors
DOI10.1007/s00382-016-3134-3
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
WOS IDWOS:000394150500027
Citation statistics
Document Type期刊论文
Version出版稿
Identifierhttp://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/136383
Collection海洋环流与波动重点实验室
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Atmospher Phys, LASG, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Wave, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Feng, Rong,Duan, Wansuo,Mu, Mu. Estimating observing locations for advancing beyond the winter predictability barrier of Indian Ocean dipole event predictions[J]. CLIMATE DYNAMICS,2017,48(3-4):1173-1185.
APA Feng, Rong,Duan, Wansuo,&Mu, Mu.(2017).Estimating observing locations for advancing beyond the winter predictability barrier of Indian Ocean dipole event predictions.CLIMATE DYNAMICS,48(3-4),1173-1185.
MLA Feng, Rong,et al."Estimating observing locations for advancing beyond the winter predictability barrier of Indian Ocean dipole event predictions".CLIMATE DYNAMICS 48.3-4(2017):1173-1185.
Files in This Item:
File Name/Size DocType Version Access License
Estimating observing(5307KB)期刊论文出版稿开放获取CC BY-NC-SAView Application Full Text
Related Services
Recommend this item
Bookmark
Usage statistics
Export to Endnote
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Feng, Rong]'s Articles
[Duan, Wansuo]'s Articles
[Mu, Mu]'s Articles
Baidu academic
Similar articles in Baidu academic
[Feng, Rong]'s Articles
[Duan, Wansuo]'s Articles
[Mu, Mu]'s Articles
Bing Scholar
Similar articles in Bing Scholar
[Feng, Rong]'s Articles
[Duan, Wansuo]'s Articles
[Mu, Mu]'s Articles
Terms of Use
No data!
Social Bookmark/Share
File name: Estimating observing locations for advancing beyond the winter predictability barrier of Indian Ocean dipole event predictions.pdf
Format: Adobe PDF
All comments (0)
No comment.
 

Items in the repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.