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题名: The IOCAS intermediate coupled model (IOCAS ICM) and its real-time predictions of the 2015-2016 El Nino event
作者: Zhang, RongHua(张荣华)1,2; Gao Chuan(高川)1,3
刊名: SCIENCE BULLETIN
出版日期: 2016-07-01
卷号: 61, 期号:13, 页码:1061-1070
关键词: The 2015 El Nino event ; IOCAS ICM ; Real-time prediction ; Model performance and improvement ; Air-sea interactions
DOI: 10.1007/s11434-016-1064-4
文章类型: Article
英文摘要: The tropical Pacific is currently experiencing an El Nio event. Various coupled models with different degrees of complexity have been used to make real-time El Nio predictions, but large uncertainties exist in the intensity forecast and are strongly model dependent. An intermediate coupled model (ICM) is used at the Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IOCAS), named the IOCAS ICM, to predict the sea surface temperature (SST) evolution in the tropical Pacific during the 2015-2016 El Nio event. One unique feature of the IOCAS ICM is the way in which the temperature of subsurface water entrained in the mixed layer (T (e) ) is parameterized. Observed SST anomalies are only field that is utilized to initialize the coupled prediction using the IOCAS ICM. Examples are given of the model's ability to predict the SST conditions in a real-time manner. As is commonly evident in El Nio-Southern Oscillation predictions using coupled models, large discrepancies occur between the observed and predicted SST anomalies in spring 2015. Starting from early summer 2015, the model can realistically predict warming conditions. Thereafter, good predictions can be made through the summer and fall seasons of 2015. A transition to normal and cold conditions is predicted to occur in late spring 2016. Comparisons with other model predictions are made and factors influencing the prediction performance of the IOCAS ICM are also discussed.
收录类别: SCI
语种: 英语
WOS记录号: WOS:000379021600009
Citation statistics:
内容类型: 期刊论文
版本: 出版稿
URI标识: http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/130965
Appears in Collections:海洋环流与波动重点实验室_期刊论文

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作者单位: 1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China
2.Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol, Lab Ocean & Climate Dynam, Qingdao 266237, Peoples R China
3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China

Recommended Citation:
Zhang, Rong-Hua,Gao, Chuan. The IOCAS intermediate coupled model (IOCAS ICM) and its real-time predictions of the 2015-2016 El Nino event[J]. SCIENCE BULLETIN,2016,61(13):1061-1070.
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文件名: The IOCAS intermediate coupled model (IOCAS ICM) and its real-time predictions of the 2015-2016 El Nino event.pdf
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