IOCAS-IR  > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室
The IOCAS intermediate coupled model (IOCAS ICM) and its real-time predictions of the 2015-2016 El Nino event
Zhang, Rong-Hua1,2; Gao, Chuan1,3
2016-07-01
Source PublicationSCIENCE BULLETIN
Volume61Issue:13Pages:1061-1070
SubtypeArticle
AbstractThe tropical Pacific is currently experiencing an El Nio event. Various coupled models with different degrees of complexity have been used to make real-time El Nio predictions, but large uncertainties exist in the intensity forecast and are strongly model dependent. An intermediate coupled model (ICM) is used at the Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IOCAS), named the IOCAS ICM, to predict the sea surface temperature (SST) evolution in the tropical Pacific during the 2015-2016 El Nio event. One unique feature of the IOCAS ICM is the way in which the temperature of subsurface water entrained in the mixed layer (T (e) ) is parameterized. Observed SST anomalies are only field that is utilized to initialize the coupled prediction using the IOCAS ICM. Examples are given of the model's ability to predict the SST conditions in a real-time manner. As is commonly evident in El Nio-Southern Oscillation predictions using coupled models, large discrepancies occur between the observed and predicted SST anomalies in spring 2015. Starting from early summer 2015, the model can realistically predict warming conditions. Thereafter, good predictions can be made through the summer and fall seasons of 2015. A transition to normal and cold conditions is predicted to occur in late spring 2016. Comparisons with other model predictions are made and factors influencing the prediction performance of the IOCAS ICM are also discussed.
KeywordThe 2015 El Nino Event Iocas Icm Real-time Prediction Model Performance And Improvement Air-sea Interactions
DOI10.1007/s11434-016-1064-4
Indexed BySCI
Language英语
WOS IDWOS:000379021600009
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Document Type期刊论文
Version出版稿
Identifierhttp://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/130965
Collection海洋环流与波动重点实验室
Affiliation1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China
2.Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol, Lab Ocean & Climate Dynam, Qingdao 266237, Peoples R China
3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
First Author AffilicationKey Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Wave Studies, Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Recommended Citation
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Zhang, Rong-Hua,Gao, Chuan. The IOCAS intermediate coupled model (IOCAS ICM) and its real-time predictions of the 2015-2016 El Nino event[J]. SCIENCE BULLETIN,2016,61(13):1061-1070.
APA Zhang, Rong-Hua,&Gao, Chuan.(2016).The IOCAS intermediate coupled model (IOCAS ICM) and its real-time predictions of the 2015-2016 El Nino event.SCIENCE BULLETIN,61(13),1061-1070.
MLA Zhang, Rong-Hua,et al."The IOCAS intermediate coupled model (IOCAS ICM) and its real-time predictions of the 2015-2016 El Nino event".SCIENCE BULLETIN 61.13(2016):1061-1070.
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