The IOCAS intermediate coupled model (IOCAS ICM) and its real-time predictions of the 2015-2016 El Nino event

doi:10.1007/s11434-016-1064-4

IOCAS-IR > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室

	The IOCAS intermediate coupled model (IOCAS ICM) and its real-time predictions of the 2015-2016 El Nino event
	Zhang, Rong-Hua1,2 ; Gao, Chuan1,3
	2016-07-01
发表期刊	SCIENCE BULLETIN
卷号	61 期号:13 页码:1061-1070
文章类型	Article
摘要	The tropical Pacific is currently experiencing an El Nio event. Various coupled models with different degrees of complexity have been used to make real-time El Nio predictions, but large uncertainties exist in the intensity forecast and are strongly model dependent. An intermediate coupled model (ICM) is used at the Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IOCAS), named the IOCAS ICM, to predict the sea surface temperature (SST) evolution in the tropical Pacific during the 2015-2016 El Nio event. One unique feature of the IOCAS ICM is the way in which the temperature of subsurface water entrained in the mixed layer (T (e) ) is parameterized. Observed SST anomalies are only field that is utilized to initialize the coupled prediction using the IOCAS ICM. Examples are given of the model's ability to predict the SST conditions in a real-time manner. As is commonly evident in El Nio-Southern Oscillation predictions using coupled models, large discrepancies occur between the observed and predicted SST anomalies in spring 2015. Starting from early summer 2015, the model can realistically predict warming conditions. Thereafter, good predictions can be made through the summer and fall seasons of 2015. A transition to normal and cold conditions is predicted to occur in late spring 2016. Comparisons with other model predictions are made and factors influencing the prediction performance of the IOCAS ICM are also discussed.
关键词	The 2015 El Nino Event Iocas Icm Real-time Prediction Model Performance And Improvement Air-sea Interactions
DOI	10.1007/s11434-016-1064-4
收录类别	SCI
语种	英语
WOS记录号	WOS:000379021600009
引用统计	被引频次：72[WOS] [WOS记录] [WOS相关记录]
文献类型	期刊论文
版本	出版稿
条目标识符	http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/130965
专题	海洋环流与波动重点实验室
作者单位	1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China 2.Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol, Lab Ocean & Climate Dynam, Qingdao 266237, Peoples R China 3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
第一作者单位	海洋环流与波动重点实验室
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Rong-Hua,Gao, Chuan. The IOCAS intermediate coupled model (IOCAS ICM) and its real-time predictions of the 2015-2016 El Nino event[J]. SCIENCE BULLETIN,2016,61(13):1061-1070.
APA	Zhang, Rong-Hua,&Gao, Chuan.(2016).The IOCAS intermediate coupled model (IOCAS ICM) and its real-time predictions of the 2015-2016 El Nino event.SCIENCE BULLETIN,61(13),1061-1070.
MLA	Zhang, Rong-Hua,et al."The IOCAS intermediate coupled model (IOCAS ICM) and its real-time predictions of the 2015-2016 El Nino event".SCIENCE BULLETIN 61.13(2016):1061-1070.

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