IOCAS-IR  > 海洋环流与波动重点实验室
The IOCAS intermediate coupled model (IOCAS ICM) and its real-time predictions of the 2015-2016 El Nino event
Zhang, Rong-Hua1,2; Gao, Chuan1,3
2016-07-01
发表期刊SCIENCE BULLETIN
卷号61期号:13页码:1061-1070
文章类型Article
摘要The tropical Pacific is currently experiencing an El Nio event. Various coupled models with different degrees of complexity have been used to make real-time El Nio predictions, but large uncertainties exist in the intensity forecast and are strongly model dependent. An intermediate coupled model (ICM) is used at the Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (IOCAS), named the IOCAS ICM, to predict the sea surface temperature (SST) evolution in the tropical Pacific during the 2015-2016 El Nio event. One unique feature of the IOCAS ICM is the way in which the temperature of subsurface water entrained in the mixed layer (T (e) ) is parameterized. Observed SST anomalies are only field that is utilized to initialize the coupled prediction using the IOCAS ICM. Examples are given of the model's ability to predict the SST conditions in a real-time manner. As is commonly evident in El Nio-Southern Oscillation predictions using coupled models, large discrepancies occur between the observed and predicted SST anomalies in spring 2015. Starting from early summer 2015, the model can realistically predict warming conditions. Thereafter, good predictions can be made through the summer and fall seasons of 2015. A transition to normal and cold conditions is predicted to occur in late spring 2016. Comparisons with other model predictions are made and factors influencing the prediction performance of the IOCAS ICM are also discussed.
关键词The 2015 El Nino Event Iocas Icm Real-time Prediction Model Performance And Improvement Air-sea Interactions
DOI10.1007/s11434-016-1064-4
收录类别SCI
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000379021600009
引用统计
被引频次:7[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
版本出版稿
条目标识符http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/130965
专题海洋环流与波动重点实验室
作者单位1.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Key Lab Ocean Circulat & Waves, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China
2.Qingdao Natl Lab Marine Sci & Technol, Lab Ocean & Climate Dynam, Qingdao 266237, Peoples R China
3.Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing 100049, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Zhang, Rong-Hua,Gao, Chuan. The IOCAS intermediate coupled model (IOCAS ICM) and its real-time predictions of the 2015-2016 El Nino event[J]. SCIENCE BULLETIN,2016,61(13):1061-1070.
APA Zhang, Rong-Hua,&Gao, Chuan.(2016).The IOCAS intermediate coupled model (IOCAS ICM) and its real-time predictions of the 2015-2016 El Nino event.SCIENCE BULLETIN,61(13),1061-1070.
MLA Zhang, Rong-Hua,et al."The IOCAS intermediate coupled model (IOCAS ICM) and its real-time predictions of the 2015-2016 El Nino event".SCIENCE BULLETIN 61.13(2016):1061-1070.
条目包含的文件
文件名称/大小 文献类型 版本类型 开放类型 使用许可
The IOCAS intermedia(1819KB)期刊论文出版稿开放获取CC BY-NC-SA浏览 请求全文
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
查看访问统计
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Zhang, Rong-Hua]的文章
[Gao, Chuan]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Zhang, Rong-Hua]的文章
[Gao, Chuan]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Zhang, Rong-Hua]的文章
[Gao, Chuan]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享
文件名: The IOCAS intermediate coupled model (IOCAS ICM) and its real-time predictions of the 2015-2016 El Nino event.pdf
格式: Adobe PDF
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。