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A statistical dynamics model of the marine ecosystem and its application in Jiaozhou Bay
Shi Honghua1,2; Wang Zongling1; Fang Guohong1; Zheng Wei1; Hu Long3
2011-07-01
发表期刊CHINESE JOURNAL OF OCEANOLOGY AND LIMNOLOGY
ISSN0254-4059
卷号29期号:4页码:905-911
文章类型Article
摘要Models of marine ecosystem dynamics play an important role in revealing the evolution mechanisms of marine ecosystems and in forecasting their future changes. Most traditional ecological dynamics models are established based on basic physical and biological laws, and have obvious dynamic characteristics and ecological significance. However, they are not flexible enough for the variability of environment conditions and ecological processes found in offshore marine areas, where it is often difficult to obtain parameters for the model, and the precision of the model is often low. In this paper, a new modeling method is introduced, which aims to establish an evolution model of marine ecosystems by coupling statistics with differential dynamics. Firstly, we outline the basic concept and method of inverse modeling of marine ecosystems. Then we set up a statistical dynamics model of marine ecosystems evolution according to annual ecological observation data from Jiaozhou Bay. This was done under the forcing conditions of sea surface temperature and surface irradiance and considering the state variables of phytoplankton, zooplankton and nutrients. This model is dynamic, makes the best of field observation data, and the average predicted precision can reach 90% or higher. A simpler model can be easily obtained through eliminating the terms with smaller contributions according to the weight coefficients of model differential items. The method proposed in this paper avoids the difficulties of obtaining and optimizing parameters, which exist in traditional research, and it provides a new path for research of marine ecological dynamics.; Models of marine ecosystem dynamics play an important role in revealing the evolution mechanisms of marine ecosystems and in forecasting their future changes. Most traditional ecological dynamics models are established based on basic physical and biological laws, and have obvious dynamic characteristics and ecological significance. However, they are not flexible enough for the variability of environment conditions and ecological processes found in offshore marine areas, where it is often difficult to obtain parameters for the model, and the precision of the model is often low. In this paper, a new modeling method is introduced, which aims to establish an evolution model of marine ecosystems by coupling statistics with differential dynamics. Firstly, we outline the basic concept and method of inverse modeling of marine ecosystems. Then we set up a statistical dynamics model of marine ecosystems evolution according to annual ecological observation data from Jiaozhou Bay. This was done under the forcing conditions of sea surface temperature and surface irradiance and considering the state variables of phytoplankton, zooplankton and nutrients. This model is dynamic, makes the best of field observation data, and the average predicted precision can reach 90% or higher. A simpler model can be easily obtained through eliminating the terms with smaller contributions according to the weight coefficients of model differential items. The method proposed in this paper avoids the difficulties of obtaining and optimizing parameters, which exist in traditional research, and it provides a new path for research of marine ecological dynamics.
关键词Statistical Dynamics Modeling Inverse Method Marine Ecosystem Dynamics Jiaozhou Bay
学科领域Marine & Freshwater Biology ; Oceanography
DOI10.1007/s00343-011-0520-x
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收录类别SCI
语种英语
WOS记录号WOS:000292558700020
引用统计
被引频次:2[WOS]   [WOS记录]     [WOS相关记录]
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://ir.qdio.ac.cn/handle/337002/11553
专题海洋环流与波动重点实验室
作者单位1.State Ocean Adm, Inst Oceanog 1, Qingdao 266061, Peoples R China
2.Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Oceanol, Qingdao 266071, Peoples R China
3.Fudan Univ, Sch Math Sci, Shanghai 200433, Peoples R China
第一作者单位中国科学院海洋研究所
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Shi Honghua,Wang Zongling,Fang Guohong,et al. A statistical dynamics model of the marine ecosystem and its application in Jiaozhou Bay[J]. CHINESE JOURNAL OF OCEANOLOGY AND LIMNOLOGY,2011,29(4):905-911.
APA Shi Honghua,Wang Zongling,Fang Guohong,Zheng Wei,&Hu Long.(2011).A statistical dynamics model of the marine ecosystem and its application in Jiaozhou Bay.CHINESE JOURNAL OF OCEANOLOGY AND LIMNOLOGY,29(4),905-911.
MLA Shi Honghua,et al."A statistical dynamics model of the marine ecosystem and its application in Jiaozhou Bay".CHINESE JOURNAL OF OCEANOLOGY AND LIMNOLOGY 29.4(2011):905-911.
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